"Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects." - Lester Pearson
I think with these numbers, i see about 55-60 seats to the ndp, not less.
I have never been excited for a provincial election outside of Ontario until this one. If the result matches what the polls say, this may be one of the most shocking elections in Canadian history. I could see the Dippers winning between 45-55 seats, depending on how the right-wing vote splits and how much the Liberal vote is suppressed in Calgary. I think the Wildrose will do better than what you predicted. I will not be surprised to see the PCs third in rural ridings. Prentice does not connect with these voters. My prediction:NDP - 49Wildrose - 23PC - 13Liberal - 1AP - 1Will be tempting for Notley's people to invite Swann and Clark into the NDP caucus. Will give them more bench strength and eliminate progressive competition. But the downside the NDP will receive flack the same way the PCs have when they invited Smith and her gang.
My prediction:Progressive Conservatives: 36Wildrose: 33NDP: 15Liberals: 2I don't need no easterners to go around predicting socialist majorities for me.
That right there is a recipe for a Wildrose/NDP coalition.