Thursday, February 2, 2017

Campaign Research Ontario Poll: 50% PC, 28% OLP #onpoli

Campaign Research, a Toronto outfit in part run by the now-infamous Nick Kouvalis and current Ontario PC President Richard Ciano, put out a poll showing the Ontario Tories ahead at 50% support, a huge number.

Now, is this result out of the norm? Not necessarily, given that the PCs are known to have strong leads in most polling and the Liberals are struggling to catch up, though the low level of NDP support in this poll (15%) is definitely different. For comparison, the last Forum poll had the NDP at 24%, and Campaign Research's numbers are the lowest for the party since January 2011. There is simply no concurrent trend there, though in CR's defense, this the first 2017 poll in the province.

Basically, take this entire poll with a huge grain of salt. It's run by people partial to the conservatives and the PC Party in particular, the numbers are outside of the norm, and on top of that the sample size was 676, a fairly low number when compared to their fellow Ontario pollsters (usually 800-1500).

But hey, where's the fun in just ignoring it? Here's what I got when I put CR's numbers into the projection model: PC - 81 seats, Liberal - 15 seats, NDP - 11 seats. This includes 17 seats for the PCs in Toronto and zero seats for the Liberals in the 905. That's what I call a rout.

1 comment:

  1. There are certainly reasons to think the poll an outlier. I think it is both an outlier and may be identifying a continuing trend.

    People want Wynne gone yesterday! The poll continues the trend of increasing Tory popularity which has been growing steadily since the election and it shows Liberals at their base support where they have been stuck since September. The poll may indicate that Ontarians are so fed up with Wynne they will vote outside party lines to ensure her removal. In other words Ontarians are coalescing around Patrick Brown to show Wynne the door. It sounds implausible but as the B.C. General Election of 2001 should remind us all-the enemy of my enemy is my friend. In that election even seasoned BC NDP members, life long voters in some cases voted Liberal or spoiled their ballot so high was the disgust with the poor management the NDP provided over the previous decade. The coalition that elected Gordon Campbell was province-wide.

    The next Ontario election has the potential to be a wipeout for the Liberal party in much the same way Frank McKenna swept New Brunswick in 1987 leaving the Tories seatless, or Gordon Campbell's 2001 election sweep which routed the BC NDP to two seats a defeat from which they have still not yet recovered.

    I also did a seat projection using the numbers and came up with: PC, 102; Lib, 5, NDP, 14. However, all five Liberal seats are marginal and a strong possibility exists for a total wipeout. If the next couple polls show similar numbers Wynne will go to be replaced by Eric Hoskins.