Just the numbers; the drama won't fit into a single blogpost.
At this time, there are 49 Conservative senators. They caucus with the Tories.
There are 29 members of the Liberal Senate Caucus. This is an Independent caucus that does not sit with the Liberals from the Commons.
There are 7 other Senators, including Independents, and "Progressive Conservatives", as well as those kicked out of their original Caucus, or suspended from the Senate.
Next week A senator will retire. A second will do so before the Election. Thus the standings when the new government takes office, or, the old one is sworn back in, will be as follows:
47C//29L//7O//22V - with V standing for Vacancy.
There is a legal challenge working it's way though the courts with the intention of forcing the PM to appoint senators given the large number of vacancies. This may go nowhere, or may become an issue, and if so, it will likely impact the next (IE post-election) government and not this one.
If held on schedule, the 2019 election will take place in October.
At that time we will have seen many more Senators retire. The NDP has stated the wish to starve the Senate, one way to do this might be to refuse to appoint any Senators. Given the NDP's lead in the polls at this time, I will presume they win the next election and do not appoint any Senators. Note this is only for the sake of example, I am not making an official projection here.
This would mean that the government elected in the 2019 election would be faced with the following Senate:
This means slightly under half the seats are vacant.
If we presume the NDP (in this example) were to be re-elected with another majority, then by the 2023 election, we would be looking at the following:
At this point the Senate would quite likely cease up and stop working. However, it is interesting to note...
If no changes are made to the Senate by this date, that means whoever is elected in this election could control the entire chamber. This could easily become this:
if the Greens won, for example.
Anyway, my point is that unless we change the Senate in some significant way (one such way might be that legal case I talked about being backed by the court) then we will have to wait until the government elected in 2023 to actually make any real change.