Thursday, June 11, 2015

Can the Bloc sweep Quebec with Duceppe?

No.

Sorry for those expecting a yes, or even something more lengthy. Simply no.

However, this does remain a "game changer". The problem is people have been playing one game while thinking they are playing another.

Last week the biggest question for the Bloc was "would Plamondon hold his seat, or would the Bloc be wiped off the map" with 1 out of 5 chance of getting nothing at all.

Today, the question is "how many seats short of party status will the Bloc be after the election?" with the best answer being "maybe 4?"

In effect, the Bloc has gone from 0.8 seats to 8 seats, a tenfold increase. The reason this is not nearly as important as many expect is they likely thought the Bloc was sitting on 4 seats, and a tenfold increase would bring them to 40.

The Bloc was never doing anywhere near that well.

This does have massive implications for the F&D. In effect, the party is as good as dead. While they might pull off a miracle, I don't see it. F&D was always about "Quebec" and not "Sovereignty", but with the Bloc deciding to move in that direction, it cuts the F&D off at birth.

Frankly, the best option for the F&D would be to officially merge with the Bloc, under the following conditions

1 - The Bloc as it is, remains. Same name, same policies, but all F&D members and assets are added to the Bloc.

I could see this happening soon, as in within days or weeks. I could also see some currently Independent quebec MPs rejoin or join the Bloc. The Bloc might end up with as many as 7 sitting MPs going in to the election.

Regardless, at this point, I don't see this meaning the Bloc will win the dozen seats they need for status, but I do see this meaning the Bloc is guaranteed at least a few seats on election night.

3 comments:

  1. I wonder if Duceppe is going to contest for a seat himself? He seems like a caretaker leader that will be gone after October 19th.

    If the Bloc crack official party status of 12 seats that is a huge accomplishment for Duceppe. Though even that looks unlikely.

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  2. Nothing has changed, the bloc offers nothing and still offers nothing.

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    Replies
    1. That's exactly what makes them popular. Back, last week, when they offered radical separation, they were harmed by that.

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