Friday, May 1, 2015

Yesterday - Alberta

A follow up to my "Today" post.

So, what happened yesterday?

A few things, lets start at the bottom and work out way up

1 - The Liberals were totally ineffective, as expected.

2 - Wildrose did worse than I expected, being nonexistent nearly.

3 - The Alberta Party actually had an alright day. Their coverage, mostly in social media, was very limited, but all good.

The Tories did one crucial thing they needed to, they came out hard against the NDP on economics.

Prentice has years of experience attacking the left, and is in his element with these attacks. They, however, failed to present a good alternative, but that might not be needed.

The NDP meanwhile didn't do much, but had some unexpected support. Polls show people still think the PC Party will win. The biggest thing in the NDP's favour is actually this. If people think a vote for the NDP is risk-free, they are much more likely to do so.

The biggest boon for the NDP was Nenshi saying he thinks the Tories will win. This might only be worth 2% of the Calgary vote, due to the new risk-free status of the NDP, but that's 2% less for the Tories, and 2% more for the NDP, and a 4% gap can win ridings.

Unexpected, was the number of polls that came out, all showing the NDP in the lead.

All in all this was a good day for both the Tories and the NDP, but not very much "better" for one VS the other.

So. What now?

The weekend.
We let people sit on this idea of the NDP in a huge lead.
We let people consider the fact the NDP might win and how they feel about that.

It will be on Monday that we will see the first inklings of that, and like 2012, the day before the election will be the crucial swing day, where voters may change their mind and make the unexpected happen.

1 comment:

  1. Do you really think getting five old, while, male CEOs to say "NDP bad, PC good" will convince a lot of people? Keep in mind the companies are a out the only tax-payers who didn't get the squeeze in Prentice's budget. Also, as the NDP pointed out, they are all bug donors to the PC Party.

    And in fairness to the WRP, Jean did announce new child and seniors tax credit policies. Although they are not exactly ground-breaking, it's something other than "we won't raise your taxes."