With all the news about the Federal "3-way tie" I decided to put in a poll average; weighted towards more recent polls.
The results were near what other political predictors and election projectionists have come up with.
117 - CPC
106 - NDP
105 - LIB
10 - OTH:
5 - GRN
2 - F&D
2 - BQ
1 - IND
I've also mapped the results, they are as follows:
Not much in the way of commentary, as usual, just a marker for how things stand at the start of the summer season before a fall election.
I will, however, say that I have been noting for quite a while that the NDP can win the 2015 election; I've insisted such even during their period in the low 20's
By the same token, I again note the Greens could win three-dozen seats, and the F&D could sweep Quebec - it's also possible neither of the two win any seats, though May losing her seat is slightly less likely than the Greens winning 36 seats.
As we saw in Alberta, a lot can change in a short time. The reason the NDP won is that people in Alberta were willing to considering a progressive alternative. There are many across Canada who are willing to consider a small-g green alternative. In addition, there remain a large number of voters in Quebec who are willing to consider a Quebec-based alternative.
The only thing I do not see as likely is the Bloc winning too many seats (IE 50%+1 in Quebec) as Quebec voters seem unwilling to back a highly separatist party, especially at the federal level.
In term of minimum extremes, the Tories could suffer a heavy defeat, down to around 40-60 seats or so. The worst the Liberals could do is about even with their 2011 performance. The NDP is best suited for a good minimum, being very unlikely to win under 30 seats. While that's less than the Tories or Liberals, keep in mind that the NDP usually struggled to get 30 seats, and they seem all but certain to take that this time without a doubt.