Thursday, May 21, 2015

Visualizing where things stand

With all the news about the Federal "3-way tie" I decided to put in a poll average; weighted towards more recent polls.

The results were near what other political predictors and election projectionists have come up with.

117 - CPC
106 - NDP
105 - LIB
10 - OTH:

5 - GRN
2 - F&D
2 - BQ
1 - IND

I've also mapped the results, they are as follows:












Not much in the way of commentary, as usual, just a marker for how things stand at the start of the summer season before a fall election.

I will, however, say that I have been noting for quite a while that the NDP can win the 2015 election; I've insisted such even during their period in the low 20's

By the same token, I again note the Greens could win three-dozen seats, and the F&D could sweep Quebec - it's also possible neither of the two win any seats, though May losing her seat is slightly less likely than the Greens winning 36 seats.

As we saw in Alberta, a lot can change in a short time. The reason the NDP won is that people in Alberta were willing to considering a progressive alternative. There are many across Canada who are willing to consider a small-g green alternative. In addition, there remain a large number of voters in Quebec who are willing to consider a Quebec-based alternative.

The only thing I do not see as likely is the Bloc winning too many seats (IE 50%+1 in Quebec) as Quebec voters seem unwilling to back a highly separatist party, especially at the federal level.

In term of minimum extremes, the Tories could suffer a heavy defeat, down to around 40-60 seats or so. The worst the Liberals could do is about even with their 2011 performance. The NDP is best suited for a good minimum, being very unlikely to win under 30 seats. While that's less than the Tories or Liberals, keep in mind that the NDP usually struggled to get 30 seats, and they seem all but certain to take that this time without a doubt.

8 comments:

  1. I did this in my head yesterday morning while walking the dogs. 130, 130 - CPC,LPC; 70 NDP; 5 BQ; 2 FR; 1 misc.

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  2. A hard to predict election. Makes it more complicated when the Greens are nominating top tier candidates such as Gord Miller and Claire Martin. Greens have the ability to pull support from the other three parties, so it does complicate predictions.

    It seems like B.C. is the most volatile province. Hard to say what will happen there, it seems like anybody's game.

    As a Liberal, I'm having mixed feelings. I am proud at what the Liberals are doing in the grassroots. There are a lot of high quality candidates being nominated. The party is doing well in terms of fundraising.

    However, I'm disappointed at Justin Trudeau and the central campaign.

    1. Liberal support of Bill C-51 was a huge blunder. It was done so the Tories won't attack them for being soft. The Liberals already lost when they become scared of Tory attacks.

    2. Once again, the Liberals underestimate the NDP. Many Liberals thought that once Trudeau became leader, NDP support will collapse to their favour. There were predictions that the NDP fall will be so bad that Mulcair will lose his seat. That is arrogant thinking.

    During the Ontario election last year, the Wynne Liberals effectively addressed the NDP issue. Kathleen Wynne successfully sold the narrative that she is the best progressive to keep out Tim Hudak.

    During this campaign the Liberals need to state clearly why Justin Trudeau will make a better alternative to Stephen Harper than Thomas Mulcair. At the moment, it is a hard sell.

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    1. I think what the Libs and Trudeau need to be selling is the competence of their entire team, not just the leader. That Trudeau is the leader is important, sure, but that he leads a strong capable team able and ready to clean up what is the worst mess in Canadian history in the federal government thanks to the destructive efforts of a decade of Harperium I think would go a long way to offsetting the Mulcair personal advantage. The thing is, so long as we think this is only about leaders, then Trudeau has an uphill battle, but traditionally we used to consider electing GOVERNMENTS, not just PMs alone, and therefore we would look at the bench strength each leader was bringing with them to the fight/campaign, and there Trudeau has a lot to offer Canadians. Granted Mulcair is also better positioned there than most prior NDP leaders, but it is clearly not on the same scale as the Libs currently have both within caucus and without comparatively speaking, especially when it comes to experience and understanding how a federal government is supposed to be run, including not least little places like the Ministry of Finance.

      I'm not saying this is all they need to do, but I do think this would be an important and significant element to have something to come back from the lets face it almost Presidential election style campaigning we have been seeing from all three major parties at the moment. The PM is the first among equals in a Parliamentary system, it is time and past time after watching when we turn it into a one man show (Harper) to remind Canadians that is not how our system works, nor has been how our system has done its best for us all. Part of what qualifies Trudeau to be a good PM is that he can put together such a strong and capable team and direct them, and THAT is what a government needs to be able to do more than anything else to implement an agenda whatever the flavour of it is in our system.

      I suspect there are still more than a few voters who would respond to this approach out there, especially those that can be peeled away from Harper who are not willing to go as far as what happened in Alberta, and I do not believe Alberta can be extrapolated simply onto the federal scene. I think a lot of unique factors converged there and that those same factors are not all there federally, at least not for the NDP. Time will of course tell on that front.

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    2. I agree, but I don't think most of the electorate looks at the potential bench strength of a party. The average Canadian could probably name maybe 2 or 3 Harper cabinet ministers at most.

      The Liberals do have the superior team with many high profile candidates. Especially the candidates they nominated in their former Ontario strongholds.

      Even most of the 36 member Liberal rump in the House of Commons is cabinet minister or parliamentary secretary material.

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  3. How the heck can you have the NDP winning all those seats in the BC Interior, but not winning South Okanagan-West Kootenay? They currently hold that seat, and they have a strong candidate running there (biologist Dick Cannings).

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    1. Also, Hyer winning as a Green in Thunder Bay is fantasy.

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  4. I think the BC prediction is absurd. The Liberals are completly overestimated (I.E Them winning Surrey South-White Rock, where the very popular former Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is running for the Tories), as well as the Greens (They will probably win SGI again, Victoria if they are doing well, but I don't think they will win ESS). The NDP's numbers in the interior are very unrealistic. They will win Nathan Cullen's riding, potentially pick up the Kootenay seat, possibly hold South Okanagan-West Kootenay, and if they are doing absurdly well, they might win in Kamloops, but they have no hope in the Cariboo or in the Fraser Canyon riding you have them winning. The same goes for them winning James Moore's riding in Coquitlam.
    I live on the South Island, just outside Victoria. As a full disclosure, I will either be voting Liberal or Conservative, for transparency sake. I think this is a more realistic prediction:

    Conservative Seats: 17
    Abbotsford
    Cariboo–Prince George
    Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola
    Chilliwack–Hope
    Cloverdale–Langley City
    Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam
    Delta
    Fleetwood–Port Kells
    Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo
    Kelowna–Lake Country
    Langley–Aldergrove
    Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon
    North Okanagan–Shuswap
    Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge
    Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies
    South Surrey–White Rock
    Steveston–Richmond East

    NDP Seats: 15
    Burnaby North–Seymour
    Burnaby South
    Courtenay–Alberni
    Cowichan–Malahat–Langford
    Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke
    Kootenay–Columbia
    Nanaimo–Ladysmith
    New Westminster–Burnaby
    North Island–Powell River
    Port Moody–Coquitlam
    Skeena–Bulkley Valley
    South Okanagan–West Kootenay
    Surrey Centre
    Vancouver East
    Vancouver Kingsway

    Liberals: 8
    North Vancouver
    Richmond Centre
    Surrey–Newton
    Vancouver Centre
    Vancouver Granville
    Vancouver Quadra
    Vancouver South
    West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country

    Greens: 2
    Saanich-Gulf Islands
    Victoria

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  5. Honestly, while the BC prediction in the Interior throws me for a loop, the Lower Mainland one isn't as crazy as you think - on pure swings alone, those districts are the Liberal's targets. You can argue about the local factors, such as Dianne Watts and so on, the Liberals are averaging between 25-30% in BC currently, which is huge jump from 2011 and even 2008 - those votes have to be coming from somewhere, and smart money is on the Lower Mainland.

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