Thursday, May 14, 2015

NDPocalypse v6.5 - EKOS Shows 3-Way Tie Federally (Updated)

We don't have the actual numbers regionals yet, but supposedly a new EKOS poll shows that the federal New Democrats are leading the pack, with 29.2% compared to 28.6% for the Conservatives and 27.6% for the Liberals - in other words, a race so close that the margin of error could place the third party first.

It could be the beginning of a trend... or it might not be. There is a reason for the bump to exist - the recent headline-and-imagination-grabbing win in Alberta - so this could be nothing more than a reaction to that, or maybe the slow but steady rise in support the NDP have seen over the last few months has suddenly paid off. Its hard to tell really, though my guess is that its a little of column A and a little of column B.

I would also caution that we've only seen EKOS in the field since the Alberta win, and their numbers don't always line up with everyone else. So keep that in mind.

When the full results actually come out, I'll be sure to delve into them a bit further.


The numbers are below, and they're a bit different from the reported results, instead with a Conservative lead, though still a three-way tie:


Based on my model, I get the following seat count: 128 Conservative, 115 NDP, 93 Liberal, and one each for the Greens and the Bloc, which is basically the same as shown by some site called TC Norris as quoted by iPolitics which I've never heard of but I'm willing to bet has a similar model, so I guess check him out.

The important numbers here are Ontario and Quebec, which account for the majority of the recent increase for the NDP since the last EKOS poll. Alberta is actually kind of stable right now for the NDP (who dropped from 27% to 25%), and instead factors more into the Conservative (rise from 42% to 49%) and Liberal (drop from 21% to 15%) movement.

The numbers in Ontario represented an 8-point increase for the NDP, while the Quebec numbers represent a 12-point increase. That is where the rise is coming from. Why is a good question, and we can only speculate - though if we loop it into the Notley win, maybe people are feeling more confident about the NDP's chances in Central Canada? Maybe the Ontario Liberals are dragging down their federal cousins as well?

That also means this is something of a bubble - the results in one part of the country are leading to rises in other parties, but there may be nothing to back them up when push comes to shove. I guess we'll see.

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