Wednesday, April 22, 2015

#PEIVotes: Poll shows Liberals Leading (of course) (updated)

Ask and you shall receive, eh?

A polling company called Abingdon Research, which hails from the other side of the country in Vancouver, released a weighted poll of 511 PEI residents, the first campaign poll we've seen so far - and possibly the only one, so make sure to hold on to it.

Update: The Charlottetown Guardian has conscripted Corporate Research Associates to release a poll for this coming Sunday, a day before the debates. I'll cover that when it comes out too.

The numbers are as follows, and the changes are represented from the 2011 election results:

Liberal Party: 43% (-8%)
Progressive Conservative: 27% (-13%)
New Democratic: 18% (+15%)
Green Party: 12% (+8%)

Despite the rather impressive numbers being put up by the two smaller parties, on a pure swing these numbers would give the Liberals 24 (+2) seats to the PC's 3 (-3), with neither of the Greens or NDP coming close to winning a seat.

Of course, there are no regionals and this is a rather small sample size, and I suspect based on those numbers that both of the smaller parties could get at least one person into the legislature.

Other than that, there isn't much new in this poll. I don't think anyone expected the Liberals to really be in danger of losing, and this result shows that they remain on top despite the apparent diversification of the electorate. We'll see what happens, I suppose.

Before I forget, there is actually a debate for PEI being held on Monday, April 27th at 6:30pm Atlantic (5:30pm Eastern). I'll be watching that as well as tomorrow's.

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