Monday, April 20, 2015

#abvote: Google Surveys Poll puts NDP Near Majority Territory - Yes, Really

I'm serious, look at it here.

1ABVote's most recent commissioned poll puts the Alberta New Democrats ahead with a 12% lead over the Progressive Conservatives.

On the numbers provided, my model spews out this intensely whimsical result at me for seats:

New Democratic Party: 34% - 42 seats
Wildrose Party: 20% - 26 seats
Progressive Conservative: 22% - 11 seats
Liberal Party: 14% - 6 seats
Alberta Party: 9% - 2 seats

What.

I imagine everyone's collective heads have tilted slightly and are staring at the page, wondering if I, Google Surveys, or yourselves have gone insane.

The regionals are far more interesting, and shows how this is possible. The NDP lead everywhere, with 47% in Edmonton (to 18% PC), 28% in Calgary (to 27% Wildrose and 22% PC), and yes, even outside of the cities - 29% in the "rest of Alberta," compared to 25% Wildrose and 22% PC.

In the end, the "conservatives" could win if not for their terrible vote split. Almost ironic considering that 1ABVote's entire issue is that there isn't a single centre-left/centrist party - yet here the NDP are, near majority status (!!!).

The caveat, of course, is that this comes from a polling company that is just testing the waters in Canada, and of course from a group who has the sole intention of defeating the governing PCs (and Wildrose as well, I assume). These are reasons to take a step back and tell yourself its alright.

On the other hand, while it is a strange result... it isn't an impossible one. We'll really have to wait for other pollsters to come out and see if this an actual trend or just 1ABVote cherry-picking or fumbling around with the data. I will remind you, however, that Mainstreet Technology's most recent poll had the NDP at 30% - think on that.

In the meantime, here's a fantasy world map map of the above results.


3 comments:

  1. I'll take an NDP Alberta government over the alternatives.

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  2. 1ABVote is a lobby group that wants to pool all "progressive voters" to vote for a single progressive alternative in their riding. As such I think it is best to view this poll with a large grain of salt especially as the result is well outside the margin of error of other recently conducted polls.

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  3. Imagine! Harper would fall off the edge of his flat earth!

    ReplyDelete