1ABVote's most recent commissioned poll puts the Alberta New Democrats ahead with a 12% lead over the Progressive Conservatives.
On the numbers provided, my model spews out this intensely whimsical result at me for seats:
New Democratic Party: 34% - 42 seats
Wildrose Party: 20% - 26 seats
Progressive Conservative: 22% - 11 seats
Liberal Party: 14% - 6 seats
Alberta Party: 9% - 2 seats
I imagine everyone's collective heads have tilted slightly and are staring at the page, wondering if I, Google Surveys, or yourselves have gone insane.
The regionals are far more interesting, and shows how this is possible. The NDP lead everywhere, with 47% in Edmonton (to 18% PC), 28% in Calgary (to 27% Wildrose and 22% PC), and yes, even outside of the cities - 29% in the "rest of Alberta," compared to 25% Wildrose and 22% PC.
In the end, the "conservatives" could win if not for their terrible vote split. Almost ironic considering that 1ABVote's entire issue is that there isn't a single centre-left/centrist party - yet here the NDP are, near majority status (!!!).
The caveat, of course, is that this comes from a polling company that is just testing the waters in Canada, and of course from a group who has the sole intention of defeating the governing PCs (and Wildrose as well, I assume). These are reasons to take a step back and tell yourself its alright.
On the other hand, while it is a strange result... it isn't an impossible one. We'll really have to wait for other pollsters to come out and see if this an actual trend or just 1ABVote cherry-picking or fumbling around with the data. I will remind you, however, that Mainstreet Technology's most recent poll had the NDP at 30% - think on that.
In the meantime, here's a