Back in 2013, I posted an election projection for the UK. You can view it by clicking here.
In it, (I hope) I made clear that this projection was based on what I expected the trends to be, between then, and 2015.
I called for 23 SNP seats, and 10 for UKIP.
I posted this projection in many places, and many people called me crazy, said it was insane for UKIP to ever get close to 10 seats, and even moreso insanier for the SNP to have 23 whole seats!!
Yet now credible sources are admitting I was right all along, and in fact, the SNP may well win far more than just 23 seats.
Frankly, given recent polling, it is quite possible for the SNP to win 40 seats, however, my gut still says we are over-estimating their numbers, if at such, and between 20-30 is more reasonable.
As for UKIP, polls currently put them at 15%, but I'll generally stick to by 10 seat call, with the caveat that this is "roughly" correct, and by "roughly" I mean between .5 and X2, or, in this case, between 5 seats and 20.
Down at just 8%, the LibDems will struggle to hold on to third and could fall to fifth in Parliament; but should easily retain the 6 seats they need for status as an official group, and thus, more powers and rights in the commons. This 'official status' appears to mean less than it does in Canada, however.
I will keep everyone up to date between now and the election on May 7th.