Thursday, March 26, 2015

UK election kicks off

Back in 2013, I posted an election projection for the UK. You can view it by clicking here.

In it, (I hope) I made clear that this projection was based on what I expected the trends to be, between then, and 2015.

I called for 23 SNP seats, and 10 for UKIP.

I posted this projection in many places, and many people called me crazy, said it was insane for UKIP to ever get close to 10 seats, and even moreso insanier for the SNP to have 23 whole seats!!

Yet now credible sources are admitting I was right all along, and in fact, the SNP may well win far more than just 23 seats.

Frankly, given recent polling, it is quite possible for the SNP to win 40 seats, however, my gut still says we are over-estimating their numbers, if at such, and between 20-30 is more reasonable.

As for UKIP, polls currently put them at 15%, but I'll generally stick to by 10 seat call, with the caveat that this is "roughly" correct, and by "roughly" I mean between .5 and X2, or, in this case, between 5 seats and 20.

Down at just 8%, the LibDems will struggle to hold on to third and could fall to fifth in Parliament; but should easily retain the 6 seats they need for status as an official group, and thus, more powers and rights in the commons. This 'official status' appears to mean less than it does in Canada, however.

I will keep everyone up to date between now and the election on May 7th.

5 comments:

  1. I'm generally supportive of your idea of the results, with the exception that I don't see a Labour win coming out of this election. I'd say the Conservatives pull off another minority/hung parliament, and if they can collapse UKIP, then a majority.

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  2. Both Cameron and Miliband are unpopular, hence the popular vote share of the two major parties combined will be at its lowest in a long time. The Conservatives seem more organized while Labour seems like they are dithering and unsure of themselves. Cameron's strategy of saying he won't run for a third mandate is smart - allowing the electorate to believe a vote for Conservative is not necessarily a vote for Cameron.

    UKIP support seems too spread out for them to make large gains. Coming out of the election with 10 seats would be a great result for them.

    The next parliament does not need to be a coalition. The Conservatives or Labour can try to govern in a hung parliament (probably won't last that long). Neither party wants to be beholden to the SNP or UKIP. Both major parties would want the Lib Dems, but they are fizzling to the point where they may not have enough seats to hold the balance of power.

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    1. It doesn't look like the LibDems or UKIP will be able to hold the balance of power. As you write UKIP support is too dispersed to garner them much more than a handful of seats.

      The elephant in the room is the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein may win enough seats to hold the balance of power. Both major parties I think would be reluctant to enter into an agreement with them and another election within a short time would be a very real if not likely possibility.

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  3. Miliband did very well yesterday it seems. We'll have to see.

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    1. Inital polls indicated Cameron won.

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