Saturday, March 7, 2015

Quick update on Israel and Manitoba

Tomorrow, Manitoba's NDP picks it's new leader, and the new Premier of the Province. 

In short, it is, roughly, a 3-way race. Selinger has between 373 and 821 delegates, depending on how many union delegates show, and, how many do as the union brass has suggested. 

Ashton has 483 from the ridings and 569 with estimated union support, but could go even higher.

Oswald seems in the most trouble, having only 424 from the ridings, 439 with union estimates, and not that much support from the lower-downs within the Unions. 

While there is a chance, depending on how things come together, Selinger or Ashton could be 3rd on the first ballot, I am thinking it will be Oswald. 

Each of the three have around 25% of the delegates locked up, with another 25% up for grabs. My gut says it will come down to Selinger vs Ashton, and Oswald will have to either play kingmaker, or let her delegates take on that role. 

This, in effect, replays the last leadership. 

I have trouble telling who is more left wing, but it seems that Selinger is slightly to the left, and is less populist. Ashton is slightly to the centre, and is more populist. The biggest difference appears to be Selinger's connection and acceptance by many in the party brass, compared to Ashton's much more 'outsider' role within the party.

In Israel there is not been much change. The Anti-Bibi vote has increased slightly, but no party has gained or lost more than one seat since the last update. Yesh Atid has some momentum, while Jewish Home last lost momentum. The Arab Joint List is starting to settle in to third position. 

There are three steps in the process of picking a new Prime Minister.

First, is the election itself.

Second, is who the president nominates. This is becoming a bit more clear; the "We will not nominate Bibi" group has not yet managed to secure 61 seats (a majority) while the "We either will or might nominate Bibi" group has had a majority throughout. 

Third and last is the actual forming of coalitions. This may prove to be more difficult as some parties that have a clear stance in phase 2, do not have one in phase 3. For example, the Joint List has indicated it would prefer to see Bibi not on power, and thus, may well nominate Herzog; however, there is no guarantee they'd sit in a coalition with him. 

Expect another update in a week's time, before the vote on the 17th. 

1 comment:

  1. Ashton has always been recognized as a the leader of the Manitoba NDP's left-wing.