Thursday, March 26, 2015

New South Wales election

New South Wales is Australia's largest state in terms of population, it is home to Australia's largest and most well known city, Sydney, and it surrounds the independent Austrian Capital Territory, where the Federal Parliament is located.

One of the big issues is electricity privatization; which makes NSW a bit like Ontario.

Compared to Queensland, it looks much less likely that Labor can win. Like Queensland, they faced a heavy defeat last time, and like Queensland, they are expected to gain seats.

In Queensland, polls taken since August 2014 never put the LNP above 53% in a 2PP, and of the 15 polls in that time frame, Labor lead, or was tied, in 6 of them.

Compare this to the last 15 polls in NSW. Labor's highest in any poll since then has been 47%, with the average being closer to 46% or 45%.

In addition, polls had Premier Newman faring poorly, compare this to Premier Baird in NSW who has an all-time poll low of 46% compared to 22% in the same poll for Foley, Labor leader.

All these signs indicate a LNP victory in NSW.

Last election Labor took 20 seats, while the Liberals and Nationals took a combined 69. Labor can be expected to gain between 12 and 20 seats, for a split closer to 52 and 37, with the remainder filled by third party candidates and Independents.

Here is a fun little calculator from ABC to play with.

The election takes place this Sunday.

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