Wednesday, March 11, 2015

It would not surprise me

It would not have surprised me if the BC Liberals won the last election, and they did. Nor would it have surprised me if the Alberta PC Party won their last election, and they did.

I often say this before an election. That such and such would not surprise me, that it is not beyond the realm of possibility, that it is something that could happen.

With the looming Federal election some time this year, I thought I would list all of these for Federal politics, so that nobody can say I made it up after the fact.

I will go Province by Province and give the maximum and minimum ranges that I expect are possible.

0-3 Conservatives
0-3 NDP
0-3 Liberal
0-2 Greens
0-3 Independent

I can't see the Greens winning the Northwest Territories, but other than that, I could see just about anyone win any of these ridings. Up north people vote based on personality, more so than party, and where they do vote based on party (Whitehorse) all 4 parties have enough of a base to win. 

British Columbia
2-35 Conservative
0-35 NDP
0-30 Liberal
0-6 Green
0-4 Independent 

The Independents are people who might leave their party, or, some local fluke popular person who runs as an Independent. This is true for all provinces, though some may already have people who have left their party.

Beyond that, many of the BC seats are "mushy" in that the vote swings, and strategic voting, allows just about any of them to be won by just about anyone. 

20-34 CPC
0-4 NDP
0-10 LIB
0-1 GRN
0-3 IND

This is for the coming election. While I do think the Liberals can sweep Alberta - IE winning 2/3rds of the seats or more - I don't see it in the next election. 

5-13 CPC
0-8 NDP
1-4 LIB
0-1 IND

Not much of note here. Can't see Goodale losing, nor the Tories losing the 5 more rural ridings.

3-12 CPC
2-6 NDP
0-9 LIB
0-1 IND

Winnipeg can swing heavily.

16-94 CPC
1-70 NDP
11-104 LIB
0-4 GRN
0-3 IND

Ontario is famous for it's late election swings towards parties that are polling well.

2-26 CPC
2-65 NDP
7-50 LIB
0-45 BQ
0-55 F&D
0-9 IND

Independent numbers are so high as it depends on where past Bloc voters will go; they may return, they may go F&D, or they may start voting for local favourites. 

New Brunswick
0-7 CPC
0-3 NDP
2-10 LIB
0-1 GRN
0-1 IND

If they really focus - and I mean pull out all the stops - the Greens might be able to repeat their shocker. 

Nova Scotia
0-4 CPC
1-5 NDP
2-10 LIB
0-1 IND

Not much of note.

Prince Edward Island
0-3 CPC
0-1 NDP
0-4 LIB

I can't see any sitting MP going IND, nor can I see any local running who is popular enough.

Newfoundland and Labrador
0-1 CPC
0-3 NDP
4-7 LIB
0-1 IND

I'd be less surprised by a Liberal sweep than I would be by the Liberals taking only 4. 

In Sum
48-231 CPC
6-200 NDP
23-234 LIB
0-14 GRN
0-26 IND
0-45 BQ
0-55 F&D

Given the time left, there is still a lot that can happen.

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