Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Alberta Provincial Poll: 30% PC, 30% Wildrose, and all sorts of weird.

Quito Maggi's Mainstreet Technologies has put out the first poll in Alberta in over a month, also the first following the recent bringing down of Alberta's deficit budget by the Prentice government which, as I noted before, is likely unstoppable because the soon-to-be ex-MLA Danielle Smith made some very bad decisions in life.

However, this poll says that maybe things aren't as dire as I predicted. According to the survey, among decided voters, the results are the following:

Essentially, its all tied up but there are some variations regionally that seem quite interesting.

The obvious, of course, is Edmonton, where among decided voters the NDP sit at 42%, a huge number for Rachel Notley and her crew (35% with undecideds included). They would very likely sweep Edmonton, especially if the PCs were as low as it says they are.

But of course, they fall flatter outside of the capital city, lagging behind in fourth behind the Liberals in Calgary - not a surprise - and the rest of Alberta outside of its two larger cities - more surprising, but not as big of one as you'd think. In those two regions, the PCs and Wildrose fight it out more, but it still represents a drop for both of them from the election, and a serious drop for the PCs since Mainstreet's last poll.

 Overall, using my projection, this would give the PCs 34 seats to Wildrose's 26, 15 for the NDP, 11 for the Liberals and 1 for the Alberta Party. In other words, the Alberta politico's Apocalypse.

If this were the case, would you see the PCs govern in a minority with the Liberals? They could reach 45 seats combined, that is a bare majority. Or would Wildrose cobble together some sort of unholy coalition with the other two opposition parties? Would the two conservative parties govern together? The possibilities are endless!!!

However, before we start lining up orange curtains for the Premier's office or whatever, lets keep in mind that we're still not in an actual election yet, and Alberta polls are somewhat finnicky. Let's also remember that the PCs have the best political machine in the country, easily rivaling the "Big Blue Machine" of Ontario's politics or the federal Liberal's organization in the latter half of the last century.

Still, this poll gives me some hope. Maybe Albertans will wake up after all.

1 comment:

  1. Good post. The poll numbers are very interesting. I can see a PC-Liberal coalition or a PC-Wildrose coalition, I think the latter slightly more likely. I don't think Wildrose could join a coalition with the NDP as that would be tantamount to a slap in the face toward its members and generally speaking their policy platforms and priorities are not in allignment. The other possibility is a Wildrose minority government although such an outcome would require the PCs being defeated on a confidence vote and the Wildrose making a deal with the opposition parties to pass a Throne Speech. I think if the results were as your projection suggests another election within 12 months would be a very likely possibility.