Monday, February 2, 2015

Queensland results, and Spoiled Canadians.

We are spoiled. We expect our election results to be final, save any legal recounts, by 6am the morning following an election. While this also holds true for the USA and UK, the majority of the rest of the anglosphere does not operate this way.

Queensland is still counting ballots. Crucial in an election this close. I've been able to grab a map to show you the results of the counts on.

I've compared the results to the 2009 election; the last competitive election in Queensland.



As you can see, the LNP has gained seats; in part, because in 2009, Labor won with 51 seats, where as they are now sitting on between 42 and 44. There are a few areas of gains. One is the Gold Coast, south of Brisbane, in South East Queensland; where the LNP now has a solid block of MLAs. Important also is the gains made by the LNP within Greater Brisbane, where they have the potential to gain 3 seats. This may not sound like much, but whereas the party used to have a "best" result of 9 (out of 40) they are now looking at 13 [my source for the 9 seats counts "greater brisbane" oddly]

There is, indeed, a big difference between taking a quarter of the seats, and a third. Note too Labor is set to gain 2 seats in regional Queensland, where the LNP is set to gain 1 or 2. This means my earlier prediction that the LNP would become a "more urban" party have come true. However, note the following:

The LNP is set to win 15 regional seats, compared to Labors 14, so regional Queensland is still more friendly to the LNP, while SEQ is still more friendly to Labor. What this means is more competitive races across more of the state, something that is, in general, healthy for democracy.

While it is possible for Labor to win 44 seats, and a majority, the minor parties are setting up to be coalition partners. Katter's Australian Party has already said it is willing to work with Labor, and willing to form a coalition with them. One Nation, which did well over a decade ago, is still seen as a "racist" party, and will likely be kept out of any coalition. Independent Peter Wellington has in the past sat in coalitions with Labor, and may do so again.

It is becoming more and more impossible for the LNP to form a government.

I expect this to be my final post on Queensland for 2015. Unless the LNP somehow pulls out a surprise, and, how they did it is in some way interesting or unexpected, I will end this miniseries here. Labor is expected to govern, likely with Katters, possibly on their own, and perhaps with Wellington.

Quite a feat for a party that, in the last election, was reduced to 8% of seats in the legislature.

7 comments:

  1. Oh no. It's that dreadful woman again.

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  2. How did Pauline Hanson revive her career!?

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  3. No, Canadians are not spoiled as we still use an archaic, 19th century try electoral system. I'd take waiting a few days for the result, if that means we got a preferential system like Queensland (which is still not as good as PR, but better than FPTP). If Queensland used our system, the LNP would have won a majority of over 50 seats because of Labor-Green vote splitting. Sound familiar? Their system allows people to vote without fear, voting for candidates they like instead of against the ones they hate most.

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  4. Hanson is behind again. It'll likely take a few more days to get the final results.

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