Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Federal possibilities in 2015

I've updated a few of the more interesting maps with more recent predictions based on poll averages.

First, Alberta:



As I've been saying for years now, we are due to win seats in Calgary. We still have the poll numbers we need to do this, and have had those numbers for quite some time now.

Next is Rural Quebec, where the Tories are trying to gain ground



The numbers suggest their attempts have, thus far, been successful.

Last is the Prairies.



The Liberals have a very inefficient vote here. With a slightly more efficient vote, this becomes possible:



Not much commentary or analysis, just a quick update on where things actually stand according to the polls to help you cut though the spin.

8 comments:

  1. If current polling holds true, this election will be and equalizing election; no more will there be entire provinces that are bastions of one party or that would 'never' support another.

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  2. Some of the downtown Calgary seats are low hanging fruit for the Liberals with redistrubution and demographic changes. It would be easier for the Liberals to win in downtown Calgary then certain outer GTA seats such as Newmarket-Aurora, Whitby or Burlington. Outside of Calgary and Edmonton, the Liberals have potential in Fort McMurray and Lethbridge. Though it may take several election cycles and some Tory blunders to reap those rewards.

    Same goes for the NDP Saskatoon and Regina. Low hanging fruit. Can potentially offset some losses elsewhere. Would be a huge disaster for them if they cannot take advantage of the riding redistrubtion. Mulcair needs to spend more time in Saskatchewan.

    I find it fascinating the the Tories are in decline everywhere except Quebec. They are holding strong and even improving from their 2011 levels. Well I guess they got no where to go but up after their disasterous result in that province in 2011.

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    1. I've been donating money to the Skyview riding for some time now. Put my money where my mouth is. I am 100% convinced we will take that riding.

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  3. The slight rise in Con support Quebec is interesting, and I've been trying to figure out where those voters are coming from; are they former sovereigntists? Are they CAQ/PLQ economy and budget voters who now feel more empowered to choose the federal Cons who seem to share their agenda (at least fiscally)? Are they just bored?

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    1. I think they are francophone swing voters in Quebec City and its outskirts and southern rural Quebec. They are moderate in their social and economic outlook and are soft separatists (so no Trudeau for them).

      This region was the bedrock of Mulroney support back in the 80s. Supported Bloc since then, but they took them for granted for a long time so they went to the NDP in 2011. With Stephen Harper's narrative about terrorism, security and identity, these voters are flirting with the Conservatives.

      Harper has had a hands of approach to Quebec issues, so that can also have a boost in Quebec. (A notion that he isn't that bad after all).

      Let's see if the Conservative numbers can sustain.

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  4. I suspect that the Harper focus on terrorism and the "other" is playing well to some.

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    1. I think this is right. I think those who thought the charter of values was a good thing, or even that it had some merit may be finding in the Harper CPC some comfort on that score. There always has been a problem with the pur laine mentality within a strain of Quebecois society, Parizeau pandered to it referendum night when he blamed the ethnic vote for their loss for example. Of all the regions of Canada, it is Quebec that may be most vulnerable to the fear of the other xenophobia masked as security and patriotic jingoism that the Harper Government(tm) has been putting out. Whether it is enough to solidly move voters, we will see, but it clearly seems to be having some impact. The question I wonder though is how much it may alienate outside Quebec, and once election day comes it has a double negative impact for Harper, first by not being all that solid within Quebec resulting in less votes, and outside of Quebec weakening their ability to keep their 2011 votes there. Only time will tell.

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  5. You're not the only one who predicts the Liberals will do well, at least by historical "Liberal standards" out West next election. I am very skeptical not least because we've heard this tune before; Paul Martin was suppose to easily win a majority on the back of Western popularity. Almost inevitably the Grits rise in the polls out West especially in BC only to fall back during the campaign. In the last four campaigns the Liberals have not received more than 28.6% of the vote but have polled considerably higher between campaigns. The Liberal vote in BC is surprisingly very stable; 13.4, 1`9.3, 27.6, , 28.6, , 27.7% over the last five elections. However, if Chretien only received 27.7 of the vote in BC when he received 41% of the vote nationally in 2000 I think some surveys over estimate Liberal strength out West. When the Tories are 30 points ahead of the Grits in Alberta the chance a Liberal will win in Edmonton or Calgary is sparse unless they run a strong candidate. They have an almost 50/50 chance of winning Calgary-Skyview and Edmonton-Centre but, odds are they will win one of them. In BC Grits are likely to win 8 seats but, predictions of 12 seats or better are batting against historical trends.

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