Sunday, January 4, 2015

Teddy's prediction for 2015

Given current polls, and my expectations for the BQ and F&D, these are my current predictions for 2015.










13 comments:

  1. You honestly think FetD is going to do that well? I'd be surprised if Fortin could win his seat, but 8?

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    1. You are looking at it backwards. I think the BQ will do that poorly. Those voters have to go somewhere.

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    2. Yeah, I think they'll just not vote, or go NDP.

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    3. I don't think the FD would do that well either. Most Quebecers do not know about this new party and the structure of this party is weak too.

      Will they be able to participate in a debate? Would this set a precedent for rouge MPs to create new parties so their voices get access in debates in the future?

      Best case scenario for that party is that their two incumbent MPs get re-elected with small margins due to vote splitting.

      Personally, I'm predicting the BQ and FD will be wiped out this year.

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    4. History suggests FeD will be allowed into the debates.

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  2. I find your prediction highly unlikely 13 Liberal seats in Metro Vancouver is simply ludicrous, the Greens picking up Victoria (which requires a 30% NDP-->Green swing) is equally unlikely as are 11 Liberal seats on the Prairies.

    If Justin can only manage 154 seats with a highly inventive prediction then, the Liberals must be in real trouble. 2015 the year the Liberal party died?

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    1. 13 seats in Metro Vancouver is far from improbable...

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    2. Before I forget, Fraser, but you do realise the NDP nearly lost Victoria to the Greens in 2012, right?

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  3. 13 seats in Metro for the Grits is on the verge of the apoplectic. In a number of the Fraser Valley ridings coloured red a swing of 10-15,000 votes is required. 13 seats for the Liberals in Metro Vancouver is improbable (especially considering today's poll by Ipsos) I would even say it is a ridiculous prediction meant to shock as opposed to reflect an accurate estimate. It's your blog and you are welcome to be as ridiculous as you see fit but, don't get mad at others for pointing out the obvious.

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    1. Based on the Liberals results in the Metro Van area in 2006, I can get to over 13 seats easily with the new boundaries, 10 sure bets and 5 extremely plausible ones. Look:

      Seats that would have been won:
      1. Van Centre
      2. Van Kingsway
      3. Van Quadra
      4. Van South
      5. Van Granville
      6. North Van
      7. West Van
      8. Surrey-Newton
      9. Richmond Centre

      Plausible/near-miss seats:
      10. Steveston-Richmond East
      11. Delta
      12. Burnaby North-Seymour
      13. Burnaby South
      14. Fleetwood-Port Kells

      That doesn't count ones like Port Moody-Coquitlam or Cloverdale that are more on the line. So what are you on about friend?

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    2. 9* sure bets and 5 plauisbles. Poor literacy hurts everyone.

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    3. This isn't to say that I believe the Liberals will get 13 seats in Metro Van, just that its not improbable; Martin did it on less than 30% support in BC in a year that he lost, why would it be impossible for Trudeau to do it when most polls give him between 30-35% support in the province and a very good shot at winning an election?

      I would also like to know what you were saying in 2011 about the NDP being able to sweep Quebec. Were you like me, and saying it was not just improbable but apocalyptic? I literally have posts saying "The NDP Apocalypse!" You discount things at your own peril, friend.

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    4. Sure bets?

      The NDP will win Kingsway, The Liberal name is mud because Emerson demonstrated Liberal loyalty to Kingsway's constituents The Tiories always win West Van, The Burnabys have a better chance of going NDP than Liberal. Hedy Fry could easily lose Vancouver Centre. I notice you didn't include Surrey Centre in your prediction but, it is coloured red on the map.

      It is not impossible for the Liberals to win 13 seats in Metro Vancouver but, it is very improbable they will do so especially with their falling poll numbers of late. Harper is on pace for a second majority-the only people unawaare are LIberals. Justin is leading the party to its destruction.

      No in 2011 I fully expected the NDP to gain dozens of seats in Quebec, my only question was why it had taken that party's socialist mentality to resonate among a people fond of socialism? Jack Layton spent 3 campaign and 7 years building a narrative before 2011. Justin Trudeau doesn't have a narrative, doesn't have any policies and doesn't look like he has a plan. The narrative Trudeau and the Liberals portray is Harper's narrative. If Liberals think the good hard working people of Burnaby or Surrey or New Westminster will vote for some rich kid drama teacher from Westmount who can't be bothered to release public policy or cobble together a plan for government-they are in for a very large shock.

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