WildRump will retain the title of "Official Opposition" it seems.
The Wildrose party, which was originally elected with 17 members, now has 5 remaining. This ties the Liberals at 5; however, due to precedent, they will retain the title they already hold.
Speakers across the country have ruled, time and time again, that whatever titles a caucus holds, pre or post election, they are able to retain it unless overtaken. This means by dropping to 5, a tie, Wildrose will retain it's status as Official Opposition, and only should it drop to 4, or, should the Liberals rise to 6, will the Liberals overtake the party and become the Official Opposition.
So what's next for WildRump? Of their 5 MLAs, one of them (from Calgary) does not plan to run again. She is also competent and well spoken. My guess is she becomes interim leader while the party holds a leadership race. Saskiw seems well positioned to win such a race, but there is also the possibility of Aglin being welcomed back into what's left of the party, and that he may run for (and win) the leadership.
Smith will eventually get a good position, IMO, but it remains to be seen which position. Prentice says no cabinet shuffle this week; but there is nothing stopping him from calling a new throne speech and making a major shuffle in the early new year which gives Smith a key position. If Prentice has any sense to him, he'll give her some kind of position with a title to the tune of "Minister of Government Ethics" so that he can go back to the voters and tell them he's so into ethics, he had the Opposition leader come on over and do that job.
So, where does this leave everyone? I've created another map that shows the current standings in the legislature. Aglin is still shown as an Independent; as that's his status, and the 5 WildRump MLAs retain their shade of Green; however the 11 defectors (9 from today and 2 from a few weeks ago) are shown in a slightly different shade of blue from the remainder of the PC Caucus.
My personal guess for the future is as follows:
Forsyth (that WildRump Calgary MLA) becomes interim leader.
Saskiw and Aglin run for the leadership.
The results end up 51%-49%, because that seems to be the trend as of late*
Either wins, it matters little.
Prentice either does a shuffle and throne speech, or, calls an early election.
Either way, in the next election, Aglin and Saskiw are re-elected.
Why do I think these two will be re-elected? Both come from areas of the province where the average Wildrose voter is different. The "Model" Wildrose voter lives in areas of the map like District 57 and District 53, the areas held by Aglin (77) and Saskiw (65) have a different voter base. With big personalities, these two people who have already won their ridings could well manage to hold on to them even if all their other colleagues go down to defeat.