Monday, December 15, 2014

Polls, polls, polls!

Three polls were released today from Leger, Forum, and EKOS, all except for the latter showing an increased Liberal lead compared to their previous polls. I'll run through them quickly below.

Leger Marketing - Dec. 13, 2014 - +/- 2.5%
Liberal Party: 38% (+2%) - 151 seats
Conservative Party: 32% (-1%) - 130 seats
New Democratic Party: 19% (=) - 55 seats
Green Party: 6% (-1%) - 1 seat
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 16% (+2%) - 1 seat

The 38% for the Liberals is the highest Leger has ever given the party, but they've also shown a pretty stable number as of recent, waffling between 36-38%. The regional numbers give the Liberals leads in every region except Alberta - 38% in BC, 42% in the Prairies, 42% in Ontario, 34% in Quebec, and 57% in Atlantic Canada. I'd call that a sweep, but apparently its not enough to give the party a majority, probably thanks to strong support in Ontario for the Conservatives (36%).

Forum Research - Dec. 11, 2014 - +/- 2.0%
Liberal Party: 41% (+5%) - 177 seats
Conservative Party: 33% (=%) - 132 seats
New Democratic Party: 17% (-1%) - 27 seats
Green Party: 5% (-3%) - 1 seat
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 14% (-3%) - 0 seats

Forum shows much better numbers for the Liberals, and absolutely terrible numbers for the New Democrats, who at 17% are probably the lowest I've seen them since 2011. Its mostly down to poor numbers in BC (20%), the Prairies (12%), and Ontario (14%), while posting 25% in Quebec. Though they're in majority territory with this poll's numbers, once again the Liberals are held back thanks to a super-strong Conservative result in Ontario (38% to 42% Liberal). If that wasn't there, you'd see the Liberals at +190 seats

EKOS Research - Dec. 15, 2014 - +/- 1.7%
Conservative Party: 30.8% (+0.6%) - 132 seats
Liberal Party: 31.8% (-1.7%) - 127 seats
New Democratic Party: 20.0% (-0.5%) - 65 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 20.9% (+5.8%) - 12 seats
Green Party: 7.8% (-1.9%) - 1 seat

EKOS breaks with its two competitors, showing the Liberals losing support and the Bloc gaining support. Quebec overall is a mess - the Liberals lead with 26.5% to the NDP's 26.3%, the Bloc's 20.9%, and the Conservative's 16.7%. Ontario and BC, the other two battlegrounds, are also fairly close.

Interesting side notes: in both Forum and Leger, the Conservatives are in third in Quebec, and in all three polls, they're up from their 2011 result of 16.5%; in all three polls, the NDP are below 20% in Ontario; and in all three polls, the Liberals lead in BC.

EKOS and Forum did approval/disapproval questions, and in both Harper has a deficit while Trudeau and Mulcair have more positive reviews than negative ones. Leger did a Best PM question, where Trudeau leads with 27% to 24% for Harper and 16% for Mulcair. In all three polls, some stark trends: Alberta is the only place that approves of Harper, while Mulcair is more popular than Trudeau in Quebec... not that it seems to matter for the latter.

Finally, EKOS asked an interesting question - would you approve of a coalition government of Liberals and New Democrats, specifically led by Justin Trudeau, in a situation where the Conservatives have enough to form a minority government. The numbers given in the chart for this are 60% in support of a coalition to 40% for a Conservative government. It'd be nice to see further numbers on this, but I think EKOS mucked up their data below because they don't show it where they say its supposed to be, instead its another right/wrong direction question.

We're not facing a situation where the reality of a coalition is so in-your-face like it was back in 2008/2009, with Stéphane Dion, Jack Layton, and Gilles Duceppe sitting at a table, smiling, so I think any support shown here can turn on a dime pretty darn quickly. Don't read too much into it, though I will say that without the Bloc in the mix, any coalition would be a lot more feasible in the future.


  1. The Bloc is done. Once voters realize the FD exists (they do not yet) they will be voting for it.

  2. Forum did not assign the seat numbers you have published. Forum only gave seat projects for a 308 House of Commons. Where do you get these numbers from?

    1. Oh, sorry, I'll explain. I used to do these projections all the time for this blog. I use a prediction program designed by my co-blogger (TheNewTeddy), probably very similar to what Eric Grenier at uses, and have been for a few years now. That is where I get these numbers from; please don't think they're final or any actual prediction, its just what the result could be like based off what Teddy's particular model shows. If you'd like to learn more, I can certainly provide you with details, or better yet, Teddy can.