Sunday, December 14, 2014

Japan, early counting

Early in the counting of ballots in Japan, results seem to indicate a few trends.

First, the LDP will not, alone, take a 2/3rds majority; but will retain said majority when allied with it's coalition partner.

Secondly, the DPJ, while gaining seats, will not gain as many as hoped.

Third, the JIP, while losing seats (Compared to the JRP last election) will not lose as many as feared.

The two other new parties expected to win seats are the FGP, a split off of the JRP, and the PLP, a split from the DPJ with more progressive elements.

Estimates are as follows:

285 LDP
33 NKP
318 - Coalition

75 - DPJ
40 - JIP
21 - JCP
6 - FGP
3 - PLP
2 - SDP
10 - IND


  1. In terms of my earlier prediction VS this...

    DPJ is within 2 seats. JCP is dead on. Number of "other party" members elected is 3 off. I did not expect any independents (perhaps foolishly) NKP is 3 off.

    My largest error appears to be with the LDP and JIP. I had projected the JIP at 17, but they are sitting on 40, and the bulk of that comes from the expected LDP vote.

  2. At this time, the coalition has 289 seats, Vs 109 for the opposition, with the remainder yet to be counted.

    While this is a big win for Abe, it is also a loss of a sort. Abe would have wanted a 2/3rds majority of his own; but may end up losing, not gaining seats, for both coalition partners.

  3. Opposition leader failed to win a FPTP seat, but still is likely to take a PR list seat.