Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Quick post on rough estimates

This is partly in reply to a 308 post about the by-elections provincially in Newfoundland.

What I want to discuss is two things. First; what to do when you want to do a projection but are short on time. Right now I am very short on time (sorry for not posting more often!) so I'm not only truncating this post as much as possible, but I will teach you how to quickly do estimates.

First, note the PC and NDP numbers.

For the NDP you'll note 7.8 and 5.4, but more importantly, the "down by" numbers of 5.5 and 8.8.

Lets very crudely and roughly estimate and round that into 4 and 9 VS 7 and 5. That all averages out to somewhere in the ballpark of 7 and 7. My point?

A rough estimate shows us the NDP has lost half their vote.

Now look at the PC numbers. You'll note the "down by" is higher than the "vote won", but both numbers are close, within 4 points of one another.

Again, a rough estimate shows us the PC Party has lost half their vote as well.

Lastly the Liberals. You need to actually do a bit of math here, but I'll give you the spoiler; the Liberals are up by between 2.5 and 3 times their vote last election.

I personally think 2.5 is more realistic.

While I don't have time to go riding by riding and multiply all results by this factor, I read the post, did the math, and wrote this post in a grand total of 6 minutes.

Just because you are pressed for time does not mean you should avoid or ignore making a projection!

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