Thursday, November 27, 2014

Newfoundland prediction map

Using the figures I worked out in my last post, I've done up a map. I want to note I ended up using 3 as the Liberal figure as after looking at polls, it seemed more in line with reality.

While this would be terrible for the Tories, it would leave them with a few seats, and their leader, in the legislature.



The Trinity riding - the Purple TCTC (Too Close To Call) riding in the "rural" area - is so because of a high NDP vote that I expect to go partly to the Liberals. Given Liberal strength in Rural NL, it is quite likely this will go Liberal on election night.

The purple one outside the inset but near St. John's - Harbour Main - is so for similar reasons, but could remain blue.

The purple one inside St. John's - Cape St. Francis - is also so for similar reasons, but due to a very high NDP vote (38%) is also likely to go Liberal.

This would give the Tories 4 seats.

The NDP meanwhile should be able to hold on to their seats, with the possibility of losing the upper-leftmost seat - St. John's East - to the Liberals.

The remaining NDP seats are St. John's Centre, the "downmost" seat, and Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi, the Leader's seat.

The remaining PC seats are:
Topsail - the  "leftmost" riding on the St. John's map, where the Premier sits. The Tories won last time with 68% of the vote.
Mount Pearl North - The " rightmost" riding on the St. John's map, where the Tories won with  73% of the vote.
Ferryland - On the main map - where the Tories won with 72% of the vote.

Mount Pearl North was last held by the Liberals in 1993, when, in that year, it was won by a PC candidate.
Topsail was last held in 1996
Harbour Main in 1999
And Ferryland in 1971. In fact, the Liberals did not break 33% in the riding in the past 2 decades.


Note that all the Non-Liberal victories depend completely on the incumbent running again. If he does not, what happened in Humber East, where the Tories took 78% yet lost the by-election by 20 points, will happen again.

3 comments:

  1. the map has an error and the post is being updated

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  2. Fun fact; a win last time with 86% of the vote for the Tories or NDP (did not happen in any riding) VS 14% for the Liberals in a two person race, would remain Tory or NDP even with that party losing half their vote (43) and the Liberals increasing their vote threefold (42)

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