Monday, October 20, 2014

Ukraine Election

After some consideration, I've decided to lead with the numbers, and explain them in the second half of the post.

185 Poroshenko Bloc Pro-President Pro-Administration
35 Radical Populist Pro-Europe
30 Opposition Bloc Anti-Europe Pro-Russian
25 Batkivshchyna Liberal Tymoshenko
25 Popular Front Liberal Non-Tymoshenko
20 Civil Position Conservative Moderate
15 Strong Ukraine Conservative Pro-Russian
15 Svoboda Nationalists Far Right
15 Communist Communist Pro-Russian
15 Samopomich Conservative Christian
40 Independent Various Various

185 Pro-Govt
120 Pro-Europe
60 Pro-Russia
15 Nationalist
40 Independent

225 Poroshenko Bloc Pro-President Pro-Administration
50 Radical Populist Pro-Europe
40 Opposition Bloc Anti-Europe Pro-Russian
35 Batkivshchyna Liberal Tymoshenko
35 Popular Front Liberal Non-Tymoshenko
35 Independent Various Various

225 Pro-Govt
130 Pro-Europe
40 Pro-Russia
35 Independent

The two sets are based on the 5% threshold. Of the 10 parties that are polling well, half of them regularly get over 5%, while half sometimes do not make this mark. Therefore some of these parties may not win any of the proportional seats.

A few notes about the parties...

The Opposition Bloc contains the remnants of the old Party of Regions.

Poroshenko Bloc, or, the President's party, has sucked up the old UDAR party.

The "Liberals", or, Batkivshchyna, have a famous leader, Yulia Tymoshenko. She, however, is a controversial figure, and the "Popular Front" party was created by party members who do not care for her; the two parties thus have somewhat similar ideologies, and are separated by personality and leadership.

There are a number of smaller parties that could also win.

Civil Position seems to be a moderate party from my read with a general small-c conservative leaning.

Strong Ukraine is a party that was once merged with the old PoR, but de-merged after the PoR got itself in trouble.

Svoboda is the far-right nationalist party, it was their participation in government that ticked off Vladimir Putin so much.

The Communists are Communist, or, at least, a modern post-Soviet Communist party; which effectively means pro-Russian nationalists who yearn for the "good old days"

And Samopomich is a christian party with strong support in the Western edges of Ukraine.

The party I have the most trouble nailing down is the Radical party. It is popular for sure, but beyond that, I have a hard time pinning it to the political spectrum.

Many of the parties are effectively just vehicles for popular politicians, and support whatever that politician supports.

I will now compare the current trends to past elections. The Presidential Bloc is the direct successor to a political party that, in 2002, managed to win 19 seats, but since then, has not existed as a separate party. I will therefore compare that party to UDAR, since the latter is running within the Bloc.

Party of Regions - 185 (last time)
Combined - 45 (this time)
Opposition Bloc, Strong Ukraine (parties)

Fatherland - 101
Combined - 50
Pro and Anti Yulia Liberals

UDAR - 40
Bloc - 185
President's Bloc

Communist - 32
Communist - 15

Svoboda - 37
Svoboda - 15

Radical - 1
Radical - 35

Others - 47
Others - 55
Everyone Else

So, what's happened?
In short, half, or a little less, of supporters of the other parties in the last election, are backing the President this time around. Likely in response to a call for unity. The only other party that's truly up is the Radical party, and the latter is likely due to the party's extremely harsh stance against pro-Russian movements in the country (suggesting separatist protesters should be shot).

The Party of Regions meanwhile has not fallen as far as would appear. There are 12 seats in Crimea (10 in the province, 2 in Sevastopol) which represents 5% of the nation-wide vote, roughly. In addition, there are seats held by the rebels and will be unable to vote. Lastly, some PoR members have simply given up on Ukraine. This explains why the Party of Region's successor parties are at 45 and not 90

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