Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Toronto update and "others"

I've done some research on Elections in Toronto, starting in 1997 with the merger of the city. Counting the top three, or four candidates each time, I've been able to determine how many votes "other" Candidates usually receive.

The lowest is 2%, and the highest is 9%, with the average being between 4%-8%.

Polls are telling us that John Tory, Doug Ford, and Olivia Chow will take a combined 100% of the vote. Quite a few polls, in fact, tell us this. These tend to be the same polls that indicate that rather than any vote for "others" there is a vote for "undecided".

For this reason, I do not trust any poll that tells me the "other" vote is at 0%. I will therefore be adjusting these polls to account for an "other" vote. As to what size remains something I am working on. Right now, the most reasonable size appears between 3% and 4%. Due to the way the graphic was set up, I will simply be including these voters with "Ari Goldkind and Others", and colour them in with Goldkind Red.

I've also poll averaged recent polls as well as older polls, and traditional support levels to produce the updated graphic.

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