Thursday, October 16, 2014

Toronto and more

I've updated the graphic with new polls, as well as increased the vote total expected for the 4th though 67th candidates. I expect just under half of this to go to Goldkind (3%) an additional 1% to go to Baskin, and the remaining 3% to be distributed among the 6th though 67th placed candidates.

Due to his weak early polling, Ford is at 31%, while Tory and Chow now match their most recent poll at 39% and 23% respectively.


There are and were elections in other locations.

For starters, one of the MLAs elected in New Brunswick a few weeks ago has quit saying he did not know how much hard work it was. I guess when you buy in to the media all-politicians-are-lazy you don't expect to have to do any hard work. There will thus be a by-election here shortly.

Also in by-election news is the Alberta By-Elections and the pending by-election in Whitby federally. 

Other countries are holding elections soon as well, or, recently held them.

An election in Bosnia has seen various nationalist candidates win their respective nationalities. 

Brazil has seen the two candidates of the traditional 2 major parties go though to the second round of voting for President.

Ireland had unexpected by-election victors, Independents. This comes as the "other" vote in polls keeps going up in that country.

And elections to come have also shown some interesting results.

Japan has seen a return to more normal polling numbers. Polls in Japan are strange in that they do not ask who the voter is supporting, but weather or not they "approve" of a party. Looking back though historical results, there is a very consistent theme that about 10% of voters are willing to park their ballot with a party they do not otherwise "approve" of, so long as they appear to be the leading candidate to defeat the sitting government. With that in mind, the current poll suggests the next election will have the following results:

362 - LDP (govt)
80 - DPJ (liberal)
14 - NKP (govt coalition partner)
11 - JCP (communist)
7 - JIP (right-wing, successor to restoration party)
3 - SDP (social democrats)
1 - YPJ (populist)
2 - Others (various others)

In Israel, polls suggest the country continues to trend to the right. The October 2nd seat projection suggests the following:

27 - Likud (conservative)
18 - Jewish Home (pro-settler)
16 - Labour (left/centre)
10 - Yesh Atid (liberal)
9 - Yisrael Beitenu (right conservative)
and so on. What matters most is that the Jewish Home, which wants to annex half the west bank, is running in second. They, along with Likud, would only need 16 additional seats to form a government, something not very difficult if the existing coalition partners, Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu, agree to continue. 

And lastly, Ukraine goes to the polls later this month. I will be doing a complete independent post on this, but in short, the new President and his Parliamentary alliance is expected to win a plurality of seats. 

1 comment:

  1. At this point in the race, I don't see any scenario where Tory does not become the next mayor of Toronto. Early voting has started and Tory has been sustaining his momentum.

    I think for us political junkies, it will be whether the polls would match the final election result. I feel Doug Ford's support has been overstated in the polls and his numbers may surprise some come election day.

    Ford Nation is not motivated to go out and vote like they were in 2010. Doug is popular amongst demographics that are less likely to vote. Even putting all that aside, Doug has ran a tepid campaign over the last month, while Rob ran a decent one in 2010.

    Being someone who resides in the GTA, I believe the Whitby-Oshawa by-election will be an interesting one to watch. The riding leans center-right, but Flaherty and Elliott have been aided by their personal popularity. It seems like the Tories have nominated the incumbent mayor of Whitby. Not sure how popular she is, but her name recognition can be an advantage in a close race.