Saturday, October 25, 2014

Teddy's final prediction in Toronto and more

I've managed to cobble together some internet using my old computer. And with that, I have some updates in my personal predictions. First, Toronto.

I don't see how John Tory can be defeated. Especially as people believe this is still a Tory-Ford horse-race. In fact, at this time, the only way I see Tory losing is if this post itself goes viral, and people switch from John Tory to Chow and others out of "comfort" that he will win. Tory will win on the power of some strategic voting and with a healthy margin. His biggest risk is people voting for Chow and not Tory, or people staying home thinking Ford can't possibly win.

In Ukraine things are getting a bit more clear. I thus have a prediction for Tomorrow's election:

Prez - 190 - President's party
Bloc - 60 - Pro-Russian Opposition
Front - 55 - Anti-Yulia Liberals
Rads - 45 - Radical Party
Home - 30 - Pro-Yulia Liberals
Self - 25 - Christian Pro-Europe
Ind - 18 - Various others

This is based on a few things, but one assumption I am making is that slightly more people will vote for the opposition Bloc. Pollsters do not have them this high but with the war I am estimating some people simply do not want to admit to supporting them, thus, they win an extra 10 or 15 seats beyond what the polls would otherwise give them in my books.

There are also elections in Tunisia - expected to be won by Liberals who are polling at 40% - and I am, as always, keeping track of events in other countries like Japan and Israel - No change since last update - and the UK - where UKIP's not only has 1 MP and another likely coming in a by-election, but their EU group has a new member - and just about everywhere else in the world where democracy happens.

1 comment:

  1. A reminder on Ukraine. Of the 225 ridings, 27 are not voting. 12 because they are in Crimea, and 15 because they are rebel held. This represents 12% of ridings. Presuming the Opposition Bloc were to win a large majority of the vote in these areas (realistic) it would tip the Proportional Representation scales such to give them an additional 20 seats. Remember as well that there is yet another 20 seats that will end up as wasted vote, not reaching the threshold in the PR election. Lastly, all 27 ridings would also go to the Pro-Russians. This would leave the party with around 130 seats, or, between 1/4 and 1/3 of Ukraine backing them.

    This "Civil War" in Ukraine is far from simple and far from over.