Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Alberta By-Elections

Teddy here on his laptop with a quick update.

The above is a colour coded results table.

The largest victory is in Calgary-Foothills.
The ratio margin is 0.5129
That means even if the PC Party had only managed 51.29% of their vote they would have still won (or at least tied) in the riding.

Prentice ran here. This indicates that he has some personal support over and beyond his party, which only makes sense. This was the least-likely loss for the party and would have been most damaging if they had lost it.

Number Two is in Edmonton-Whitemud.
While the ratio is 0.5236 there is a caveat here.

Not only is this the best NDP result, but it's also the best Liberal result, and, the worst Wildrose result. This is an Edmonton riding. Edmonton is more to the left, and these results indicate to me that the Tories can still win on the splits in the city.

Up next is Calgary-Elbow.
The ratio margin here is 0.8102, a much closer race.

There were two spoilers here, the first is that this is the riding of Redford, and the second was the very strong Alberta Party candidate. My personal read on this is that the AP vote is the "I want to vote PC but what they are doing recently upsets me" vote. This vote is available across the province for the party best able to pick it up. Note that if Wildrose or the Liberals had picked up this vote, they would have won the riding. This is good news for both parties; if they can tap in to the anger at the PC Party, and hold on to it (without losing it to fear as Wildrose did last time) they could win the election. The problem here is that neither party has been able to do so, and these results simply show that the PC Party is still flying high.

Last on our list is Calgary-West.
The ratio margin is a small 0.9347.
This means even a loss of 7% of the vote would have resulted in a loss for the Tories.

The simple fact that this is the last riding on the list is important, it's the only one where the Tories were not running a Cabinet minister. In effect, it is the riding the Tories decided they could afford to lose. They did not lose it.

For the reasons outlined above, this is great news for the Tories, bad news for the Liberals, NDP, and Alberta Party, and Terrible news for Wildrose. The latter needed Calgary West. Losing it will have repercussions.


  1. With a better leader, the Alberta Liberals could win 30 seats next election. With the perfect leader they could even win.

    1. Sadly, the only person I could see winning a majority for the provincial Liberals is Nenshi. And I don't see him leaving his current job.

    2. 30 seats for the Liberals is very ambitious and verges on the impossible even with a better leader. Their best leader Laurence Decore only won 32 seats. It' is not simply Raj Sherman's fault it is the nature of Alberta politics and quite frankly the Liberal name in Alberta is "mud". Raj Sherman is the wrong leader for a whole host of reasons but, he is constrained by the dominant party system of Alberta politics. A new leader still needs to find a way to break the party system before he/ she has a chance of forming government. Nenshi has an appeal but, outside urban Calgary and Edmonton his favourability decreases significantly.