Very short update about where the polls might go.
First, I want to get this out of the way; John Tory is for all intents and purposes, the big L Liberal candidate for Mayor. Brad Duguid, a Liberal MPP, has endorsed him. In addition, as said earlier, most Liberals I know within the city are backing John Tory. I will thus continue to treat him as such. Doug Ford meanwhile was a prospective PC Candidate, and Olivia Chow is a card-carrying New Democrat. While elections in Toronto are non-partisan, it is quite clear the top three candidates have some level of backing from each of the three parties. This was true in 2010, true in 2006, and will likely continue to be true for the time being.
Now, on to the polls.
We have actually had Doug Ford polled before in a Forum poll from some time ago.
Doug was able to get about 80% of the response his brother did.
This would suggest the following result:
46% - John Tory
27% - Olivia Chow
25% - Doug Ford
However, a flash poll, also by Forum, has produced the following
41% - John Tory
34% - Doug Ford
19% - Olivia Chow
Chow has been on a downward trajectory for a number of weeks now, with fewer and fewer non-NDP-type voters backing her. John Tory seems to be sucking up that voterbase, and maintains a lead according to the flash poll.
Personally, I do not expect this boost to Ford to last. I also expect Chow's vote to continue to decrease to NDP levels, meaning closer to 15% I also expect most Anti-Ford supporters to gather in the John Tory camp, and push his levels up, while Doug Ford returns to more traditional Ford-levels of support.
Thus my prediction for election day is as follows:
50% - John Tory
30% - Doug Ford
15% - Olivia Chow