Friday, September 12, 2014

Quick update on Doug and Rob Ford and Toronto

Very short update about where the polls might go.

First, I want to get this out of the way; John Tory is for all intents and purposes, the big L Liberal candidate for Mayor. Brad Duguid, a Liberal MPP, has endorsed him. In addition, as said earlier, most Liberals I know within the city are backing John Tory. I will thus continue to treat him as such. Doug Ford meanwhile was a prospective PC Candidate, and Olivia Chow is a card-carrying New Democrat. While elections in Toronto are non-partisan, it is quite clear the top three candidates have some level of backing from each of the three parties. This was true in 2010, true in 2006, and will likely continue to be true for the time being.


Now, on to the polls.
We have actually had Doug Ford polled before in a Forum poll from some time ago.
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/94757_TO_Horserace_News_Release_%282014_05_21%29_Forum_Research.pdf
Doug was able to get about 80% of the response his brother did.

This would suggest the following result:

46% - John Tory
27% - Olivia Chow
25% - Doug Ford


However, a flash poll, also by Forum, has produced the following
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/141/tory-with-7-point-lead-over-doug-ford

41% - John Tory
34% - Doug Ford
19% - Olivia Chow


Chow has been on a downward trajectory for a number of weeks now, with fewer and fewer non-NDP-type voters backing her. John Tory seems to be sucking up that voterbase, and maintains a lead according to the flash poll.

Personally, I do not expect this boost to Ford to last. I also expect Chow's vote to continue to decrease to NDP levels, meaning closer to 15% I also expect most Anti-Ford supporters to gather in the John Tory camp, and push his levels up, while Doug Ford returns to more traditional Ford-levels of support.

Thus my prediction for election day is as follows:

50% - John Tory
30% - Doug Ford
15% - Olivia Chow

7 comments:

  1. It should also be noted in 2003 we also had party backing of an unofficial sort. Miller by the NDP, Tory by the PCs, Hall by the Liberals, and Nunziata by the Alliance.

    In 2000 the Liberals and NDP sat out, while PC Mel Lastman defeated the Green's Tooker Gomberg (all unofficial, of course)

    And lastly, the first merger election in 1997 saw PC Mel Lastman defeat Liberal Barbara Hall.

    Even 1994 saw Barbara Hall, at the time backed by the NDP, defeat June Rowlands, at the time backed by the Tories.

    1991 saw Rowlands, backed then by the Liberals, beat NDP's Jack Layton.

    1988 saw Eggleton (Lib) beat Wright (NDP)

    1985 Eggleton (Lib) vs Johnston (NDP) - Johnston was a member of the Liberals, but backed by many "progressives"

    1982 Eggleton won with 75% of the vote

    1980 Eggleton (with backing from many Tories) beat Sewell (backed by many in the NDP)

    It is only prior to this that things start to get fuzzy. 1978 saw three "Liberals" run, 1976 and 1974 were landslides, 1972 saw an official PC member win, by with much progressive backing, and things only get worse from there.

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  2. oops, I thought I was posting this on BCL's blog! It's in jest. Sort of. ;-)

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  3. I'd disagree with the notion that Doug Ford is the PC candidate, I'd say he is more of an "independent" in this context. He wanted to run for the Ontario PC, but they weren't warm to his candidacy.

    The Ford brothers do not have any allies in the PC or CPC brass. I don't think there are a single prominent conservative politician in the city that openly supports the Ford brothers. At this moment is seems that only nobodys such as Giorgio Mammoliti and John Nunziata (both turncoats) support Ford. Furthermore, Ford support transcends conservatism. In Ward 2, the Fords get anywhere between 65-80% of the vote for council, while the federal Conservatives during their best election in 2011 can only muster 32% of the vote.

    John Tory seems to be getting support from big L Liberal and big C Conservatives from across the board. CPC MPs such as Mark Adler, Chungsen Leung, Bernard Trottier and Peter Kent have openly endorsed him. Of course, Brad Duguid endorsed Tory which was big news since he is a prominent provincial cabinet minister (signalling that Wynne prefers Tory over Chow). Other current and former Liberals such as Judy Sgro, Mitzie Hunter, Alvin Curling and Bob Wong endorsed Tory too. The most surprising endorsement was former provincial NDP cabinet minister Zanana Akande.

    I truly believe municipal politics transcends party politics and different coalitions are formed. Ford allies that are seen as right-wing such as Norm Kelly and Peter Milczyn are big L Liberals. Ford opponents that are seen as leftists like Shelley Carroll and Adam Vaughan is also a big L Liberal. Only when party labels are out of the question can Mel Lastman or David Miller win landslide victories.

    My personal prediction

    John Tory 45% (keeps steady with Liberals and intellectual Conservatives supporting him)
    Olivia Chow 30% (rallies the left, NDP support is rarely 15% city wide usually 20-25%, some left leaning non-NDPers return once Ford threat is gone)
    Doug Ford 22% (only hardcore "Ford Nation" populists remain)
    Other 3% (fringe candidates get smaller share of the support in an election that focuses on Rob Ford)

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  4. John Tory is a big "C" conservative having been a member of that party for many years. He can't be a big "L" Liberal because he is not a member of the Liberal party. He is not the "big L Liberal candidate for Mayor", he may be the preferred Liberal party candidate.

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