Sunday, September 21, 2014

Personal New Brunswick Gut Prediction - Liberal Minority

I have a terrible sinking feeling that my gut is wrong on this one. My gut sometimes serves me well, Ontario for example, even in Scotland, but here, I just don't know. I have a terrible feeling my gut is wrong on this one.

Despite that I will go with what my gut tells me.

For those looking for a math based prediction, they can check out this post, which has it.

As for my gut, it tells me the following:

I see trouble for the NB Liberals. They have run a pretty weak campaign and their leader has just made too many mis-steps. This should have been a landslide for them, an easy victory, but the campaign has put that in doubt.

I, unfortunately cannot examine if polls are faulty. The key to determining that; as I did in Ontario, Scotland, and retroactively in BC and Alberta, is to look at the answers to the "how did you vote last time" question. The polls for New Brunswick do not contain that question.

My gut tells me that the Liberals will only get a minority, and that the NDP will win their targets. Cardy has run a good public campaign; the only way his campaign loses is if the ground game is awful; which, it could be; I am not in New Brunswick to examine the ground game myself.

In the end, this should be an interesting election to watch; even if the Liberals do win a large majority, there will be questions asked that will be interesting to hear.


  1. I would say 25-21-3, the NDP candidate in Harbour has done an abysmal job, Doherty is pretty much a lock.

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  3. I don't think the NDP will earn one seat, if I'm completely honest. Cardy is simply not impressive enough.

  4. In all fairness he was a far better debater that Mr. Gallant, who is every bit as awful as his predecessor, but the NDP's trend is downward and I don't think they can save a seat either, at 15-20 they could win Fred. South as well as West-Hanswell and Hampton but they are no longer at that level and the will probably not return.