I have a terrible sinking feeling that my gut is wrong on this one. My gut sometimes serves me well, Ontario for example, even in Scotland, but here, I just don't know. I have a terrible feeling my gut is wrong on this one.
Despite that I will go with what my gut tells me.
For those looking for a math based prediction, they can check out this post, which has it.
As for my gut, it tells me the following:
I, unfortunately cannot examine if polls are faulty. The key to determining that; as I did in Ontario, Scotland, and retroactively in BC and Alberta, is to look at the answers to the "how did you vote last time" question. The polls for New Brunswick do not contain that question.
My gut tells me that the Liberals will only get a minority, and that the NDP will win their targets. Cardy has run a good public campaign; the only way his campaign loses is if the ground game is awful; which, it could be; I am not in New Brunswick to examine the ground game myself.
In the end, this should be an interesting election to watch; even if the Liberals do win a large majority, there will be questions asked that will be interesting to hear.