Saturday, September 13, 2014

Omnibus Minipost

A second poll from a small firm has come out and pegged Doug Ford at 16%. I decided to do some poll averaging, including the two polls, the last Rob Ford poll with the 80% modifier I noted earlier, the previous Doug Ford poll from months ago, and lastly, my own personal "gut" poll. The result is as follows:

42.8% - John Tory
25.6% - Olivia Chow
25.4% - Doug Ford

As for who is what candidate in terms of party support, I'll say this: I colour the names because it makes the race easier to follow for those not familiar with politics in Toronto. Clearly the "party lines" are not going to be crisp, however, in general, those who like the "blue" party, will, in general, like Doug Ford, while those who like the "orange" party, will like Chow, etc so on and so forth. I will continue to colour these three candidates in this manner until the election date, but will not be adding any party labels to any of them, as, clearly, they are all independents. I threw this on a graph to show, as opposed to tell, why I want "party" colours for these candidates. I plan to make more (and far better) graphics like this as the race continues.

There are two state elections in Germany on Sunday. While I had planned to do a minor write-up on both, the simple reality is both incumbent government coalitions are expected to be re-elected with around 55% of the vote, and thus, I'll simply leave it at that.

More interesting is what is going on in Sweden. None of the proposed coalitions seem to work, but a grand coalition between the two major parties would secure a majority. The election itself is Sunday, and the actual final numbers will determine which combinations work and which do not.

After a crazy third ballot due to a non-tie tie second ballot tie non-tie, Paul Davis has emerged as the Premier-Designate. He replaces Tom Marshall, who replaced Fred Corbett (or something), who replaced Tom Marshall, who replaced Kathy Dunderdale, who replaced Danny Williams. Marshall actually never left his post, with his prior "replacement" resigning prior to taking office. That joke added to this "mess" of a second ballot, in which it became pointed out that 50%+1 is not a majority, but slightly more than a majority. In this case, 340 VS 339, as, 340.5 is actually 50%+1.

I do not expect many changes from my last newfoundland predictions, though some St. John's area ridings might be solidified; in particular, the "middle" of the three light-blue ridings is now that of the leader, and would thus be expected to be held by the party.

New Brunswick
A new poll that I've only found reference to on Twitter pegs the Liberals at 42%, the Tories at 32%, and the NDP at 13%. I've added this to a poll average (weighted to forum's other poll)* to produce this:

45% - Liberal
31% - PC
16% - NDP
6% - Green
2% - Alliance

And this map:

*This means I added the two forum polls, then treated that as a single poll with a weight of one third, when combining it with the other two polls to come out within the past month. IE each forum poll was weighted at 1/6th.


  1. Poll averaging indicates that only a raw 3% or so (10% of supporters) support Rob but not Doug.

    In other words, Doug has lost 10% of the vote Rob was expected to get. Far better than the 20% earlier estimated.

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