"Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects." - Lester Pearson
I can - NDP's recent support is likely just protest voters who couldn't stand Gallant either, now coming home to roost back with the Alward PCs. Plus Cardy has been taking a very "conservative" tone as of late, that attracts these people but in the end they probably think its better to go with the real thing.
The NDP like the Tories often has a rural populist base.
Not in New Brunswick. Their support is based in the cities or in the Acadian areas - but not rural Anglophone ridings.
Actually, Kyle has the opposite. Much of the NDP support is rural in NB, but it comes from the "eastern" rural anglo areas, whereas PC vote comes from the "western" rural areas. IE an NDP majority would likely win riding 25 and rural ridings to the south of it.