Tuesday, September 2, 2014

New Brunswick, new poll

New poll by CRA puts the Liberals far ahead.

I've decided to break it down and take out the undecided voters. Why? There are only 14% undecided, and with such a small number, we can work with this to look at some possibilities for how the election may end.

First a few notes
1 - This poll is bad news for the NDP, which needed to be higher.
2 - This poll is bad news for the PC Party, which also needed to be higher.
3 - This poll is amazingly great news for the Liberals.

Now for the numbers.

41% - Liberal
25% - PC
15% - NDP
3% - Green
2% - Alliance
14% - Undecided

I've not coloured in the above in party colours for reasons that will soon become apparent, I wish to avoid this page looking like a failure of the rainbow milk challenge.

Breaking down undecided voters based on decided voters gives us the results of the poll

48% - Liberal
29% - PC
17% - NDP
4% - Green
2% - Alliance

However, there are other possibilities, and that is what I want to examine in this post.

No predictions found here, no ElectoMatic, no maps; just poll numbers.


All go Liberal
This presumes all undecided voters jump on the bandwagon and go Liberal.

55% - Liberal
25% - PC
15% - NDP
3% - Green
2% - Alliance

I will be using these numbers and the numbers below in a series of 5 posts on each of the parties.


All go PC
This presumes all undecided voters break PC.

41% - Liberal
39% - PC
15% - NDP
3% - Green
2% - Alliance


All go NDP
Unlikely, but if all undecided voters went NDP, the result would be as follows.

41% - Liberal
29% - NDP
25% - PC
3% - Green
2% - Alliance


All go Green
As it says on the tin.

41% - Liberal
25% - PC
17% - Green
15% - NDP
2% - Alliance


All go (Public) Alliance (New Brunswick)
Same as above

41% - Liberal
25% - PC
16% - Alliance
15% - NDP
3% - Green


So, that is simple, but what if the undecided voters split in a far more realistic manner?

Each of the below has half of them (7%) breaking towards one party, while the other half (7%) break the same way decided voters do.


Half Liberal

52% - Liberal
27% - PC
16% - NDP
4% - Green
2% - Alliance


Half PC

45% - Liberal
34% - PC
16% - NDP
4% - Green
2% - Alliance


Half NDP

45% - Liberal
27% - PC
23% - NDP
4% - Green
2% - Alliance


Half Green

45% - Liberal
27% - PC
16% - NDP
11% - Green
2% - Alliance


Half Alliance

45% - Liberal
27% - PC
16% - NDP
9% - Alliance
4% - Green



These numbers are, I believe, the general limit to how far things can move during the election.

Over the next week I will look at each of the 5 parties individually and produce a prediction based on these numbers.

The first post will be about the Alliance, and the final post about the Liberals. The first post will contain some party 'history' (you will understand it when you read it) as well as 2 predictions based on the above numbers, full and half. The following day, there will be a similar post about the Greens, and so on, each day I will provide the copies of the ElectoMatic, so you can see, in near real-time, the individual riding by riding changes I make based on new information.

If you are anxious and want an advance copy of the ElectoMatic, you can follow me on twitter at thenewteddy and send me a message!




3 comments:

  1. I unfortunately do not have, nor do I have a twitter account ant other way I can get it?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I don't see how this poll is good news for the Liberals, two recent polls had the Grits at 48% and 46%. According to this poll the Grits have lost support. One poll doesn't make a campaign but, if this is the beginning of a trend it will be dangerous.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Make sure you don't count undecideds, as Teddy has. CRA has the NB Libs at 48% this poll without undecideds.

    ReplyDelete