Sunday, September 21, 2014

Everything changes in New Brunswick

A Forum poll has changed everything in the New Brunswick election.

This, clearly, changes the math; in addition, it radically changes my gut prediction.

My gut is able to read the emotions of voters; sometimes rather poorly, sometimes very well. Hearing the race is tied will, in my gut's opinion, make NDP voters into Liberal voters.

In addition, I've examined the poll, and there is no undersampling for any particular party, it is undersampling that caused errors in Scotland, BC, Alberta, and other areas.

There is also evidence from past elections that momentum counts; therefore, rather than adding a tie to the poll average, I need to add a PC lead to the poll average.

As you can see, I am now predicting a PC victory. Brian Gallant has been a serious disappointment, and seems to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Should this happen as shown, Gallant is done for.

Gallant could stay on if he does manage a narrow majority, or even if he loses by a very narrow margin (1 or 2 seats) but anything more means he will be tossed and replaced.

1 comment:

  1. "Hearing the race is tied will, in my gut's opinion, make NDP voters into Liberal voters."...its a nice theory but a poll released just before midnight the night before election day will get talked about by a few political junkies - but very very few actual voters will be aware of it...Its a tree falling in a forest.

    Over the course of the campaign, to the extent that there has been a trend it has been for the PCs to gain from the NDP will the Liberals have only lost a bit of ground.