Sunday, September 7, 2014

A quick note about Scotland.

Just a quick post. You may have heard of a recent poll showing the YES side leading in Scotland. I for one do not buy it. Why?

I'll be brief; this poll, and other similar polls showing "momentum" for the YES side, all have one thing in common.

They are finding few people who admit to voting SNP last time.

These polls thus get re-weighted to give SNP voters more weight, and thus this pushes the number up.

This has happened in Canada a number of times. When and where?

In Quebec, with the PQ - the PQ ended up far lower than expected by the polls.
In Alberta, with Wildrose - Wildrose ended up far lower than expected by the polls.
In British Columbia, with the NDP - The NDP ended up far lower than expected by the polls.
In Ontario, with the PC Party - the PC Party ended up far lower than expected by the polls.

It is thus my belief that this undersampling is what is causing this "movement" in the polls, and not any real movement in voters.

For whatever reason, pollsters can not find SNP voters. There could be a few reasons for this.

1 - SNP voters refuse to answer this question.
2 - SNP voters lie and say they voted Labour or Tory
3 - SNP voters don't want to admit they are voting NO and thus do one of the first two.

I still expect the final result to be 57% - 43% and a victory for the NO side, despite polls suggesting this won't happen.



An additional note about my series of posts on NB political parties; due to life circumstances, I'm drawing back the 'official' update schedule to once every two days. While I still hope to pump out a post today for the NDP, and posts Monday and Tuesday for the Tories and Liberals, I will give myself more room for yet another life emergency taking up my time.

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