Thursday, August 21, 2014

What 170 seats might look like

I decided to do a quick reverse prediction, where rather than taking existing polling numbers and finding the seat total, I adjusted the polling numbers to produce a seat total.

Based on current polls, my understanding of current events, and my read of where the Liberals want to focus in the coming election, this is my 'best educated guess' as to which 170 seats Justin Trudeau has in mind.

edited to add:
I may have grabbed the incorrect map files. I will be doing a further follow-up post to this that does not focus so much on the number 170


  1. This would give us an MP in...
    each province
    the 15 largest metropolitan areas
    the 15 largest urban areas (a slightly different thing)
    the 27 largest municipalities
    and, of course, a majority of ridings.

    1. Don't you think the liberals want U-rosedale?

  2. Your map gives the NDP 24 Ontario seats, your chart only 14

  3. I'd write out Hope-Chilliwack, Okanagan Coquihalla, and Kelowna Lake country from the total, unless there's really something I can't see going on

  4. You give the Liberals 20 ridings on the map but only 15 in your chart-what gives?

  5. Yeah there are some issues with the maps, Teddy - maybe do a repost.

  6. I may have grabbed the wrong maps. I will do a repost not focusing so specifically on the 170; reverse predictions are not so simple.