I have re-adjusted the 'regions' within the province to be more logical. There is now a 17-seat Acadian region. This region contains every riding where there are more French speakers compared to English speakers. The remaining ridings, Anglophone, are divided into two 26 seat regions; Fundy and Central.
The current prediction is as follows:
I've also used census data to compile a real demographic map. It is as follows:
So, where are things going? The answer is a bit of a surprise to me, despite my earlier post.
The Liberals are doing poorly.
I don't see the Tories doing much better, both seem to be a bit vague at the risk of upsetting voters, but the Tories are more willing to take positions; the problem is those positions are unpopular.
So, who stands to benefit? The NDP. The NB NDP is running their strongest campaign in history, and they are up against two weak campaigns from the Liberals and Tories.
I personally would not be surprised to see this election end with the NDP taking far more than 7 seats.