Saturday, August 30, 2014

New Brunswick Prediction Update

Teddy here with an update to the map and the prediction.

I have re-adjusted the 'regions' within the province to be more logical. There is now a 17-seat Acadian region. This region contains every riding where there are more French speakers compared to English speakers. The remaining ridings, Anglophone, are divided into two 26 seat regions; Fundy and Central.

The current prediction is as follows:



I've also used census data to compile a real demographic map. It is as follows:



So, where are things going? The answer is a bit of a surprise to me, despite my earlier post.

The Liberals are doing poorly.

I don't see the Tories doing much better, both seem to be a bit vague at the risk of upsetting voters, but the Tories are more willing to take positions; the problem is those positions are unpopular.

So, who stands to benefit? The NDP. The NB NDP is running their strongest campaign in history, and they are up against two weak campaigns from the Liberals and Tories.

I personally would not be surprised to see this election end with the NDP taking far more than 7 seats.




7 comments:

  1. The Liberals will not sweep Saint John and certainly will not be knocking off Higgs at this level of support, he is universally respected for being an honest, and blunt, not to mention competent Finance minister.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will add information about Higgs to the ElectoMatic.

      Delete
    2. This
      http://i.imgur.com/5o8qidt.png
      is what I get after making a 15 point adjustment in quispamsis. it's the second largest adjustment on the ElectoMatic, behind the Tracadie-Shelia adjustment of 20 points.

      Delete
  2. this http://i.imgur.com/cC4Sdhx.png is my current prediction for the final election results. Note that even a minor change - in this case to the Liberal campaign - could result, very easily, in a change of 20 if not 30 seats.

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  3. Can I have a copy of the electomatic? I live in NB am a big fan of the electomatic series of prediction models you have made.

    If Higgs is defeated, the province will have thrown out one of few competent politicians.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will include a copy in the next update

      Delete