Monday, August 25, 2014

New Brunswick, example of a bad Liberal result

Simply, the Liberals are expected to win the election by a huge margin. What, though, if they only won by a smaller margin?

I've taken recent polls and cherry picked some good results for the PC Party, NDP, Greens, and PANB from different polls. I've combined them with a low Liberal number, and have produced the following result:



Since the image uploader is being fussy, I'll explain what is supposed to be shown.

This is a map (of course) that indicates the following.
In the 15 seat "North Central New Brunswick" region that I outlined in my previous post on the province, I expect to see the following:
41.6% - 11 - Lib
32.4% - 3 - PC
22.1% - 1 - NDP
3.0% - 0 - Grn
0.9% - 0 - PANB

In "South East New Brunswick" with it's 13 seats, I expect the following:
38.7% - 10 - Lib
28.9% - 3 - PC
21.8% - 0 - NDP
10.1% - 0 - Grn
0.6% - 0 - PANB

In the 10 seat "Saint John Area" I expect the following:
32.0% - 3 - Lib
30.8% - 3 - PC
29.9% - 4 - NDP
5.8% - 0 - Grn
1.4% - 0 - PANB

And lastly in the 11 seat "South Central New Brunswick" I've mapped this:
34.6% - 7 - PC
27.3% - 2 - Lib
24.6% - 2 - NDP
9.3% - 0 - Grn
4.2% - 0 - PANB

This is based on, and provides the following result:

37.0% - 26 - Lib
31.0% - 16 - PC
24.0% - 7 - NDP
6.5% - 0 - Grn
1.5% - 0 - PANB

The Liberals, it should be noted, are polling much closer to 47% than 37%.

6 comments:

  1. New poll from Ipsos! 38 Lpc 31 Cpc and 24 Ndp.

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  2. The NDP are *not* going to win Tracadie-Sheila. I keep saying this, no one believes me.

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  3. The NDP are not going to win 7 seats. The last CRA poll pegged them at 16% province wide. They will be lucky to win a seat or two in Saint John.

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    1. 16% is still five points higher than their best result in any election, just to point out.

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    2. Yes, and still a long way from winning 7 seats! During the NDP's "best election" the Confederation of Regions party won 8 seats on 21% of the vote. However, their vote was concentrated in Anglophone constituencies not province wide. COR probably won a third of the Anglophone vote that year. Without a regional base it is difficult for any party to win multiple seats.

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    3. I don't disagree, though I think we're facing a new dynamic here in New Brunswick, where you have the Libs and PCs strong, but also a strong third party. The only analogous situations are federally or maybe in the 1920s when the United Farmers kicked about in NB (we don't have popular vote counts for then though). Vote splitting could easily hand the NDP quite a few seats, which is probably where Teddy gets his ideas from.

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