Friday, August 22, 2014

Liberal Majority, second try

Due to some mapping errors in the last post, I decided to do another post about the possibility of a Liberal majority. Rather than attempt a reverse prediction, I've simply boosted real polling numbers in ways I feel are realistic.

I've also taken steps to reduce future map errors. Each map now contains numbers indicating the number of seats each party wins. These numbers are accurate and if the ridings do not match, it is an indication of an error in the colouring. This helps me find these errors and correct them.

This prediction has the following results

172 - Liberal (majority)
107 - Conservative
57 - NDP
1 - Green
1 - Bloc









11 comments:

  1. This prediction *does* have Mulcair losing his seat, however, I do not consider this a big deal. NDP leaders have failed to win their seats in the past; they just find another one.

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  2. NDP leaders may have lost their seats in the past, but Mulcair is popular in his home province. I personally cannot see him lose his seat. I also don't see the Liberals putting a serious effort in that riding when talent and resources can be used to target other ridings.

    My thoughts on the Ontario map:

    Things may change, but at the moment I don't see the NDP reduced to just one seat in Toronto. Peggy Nash, Andrew Cash and Radhika Sitsabaiesan are popular in their ridings and seem "safe". Other Toronto NDP incumbents are vulnerable - they don't have the same strong name recognition and local organization.

    Also in Ontario, I think the Liberals can pick up the open seat in Windsor-Techumseh (especially if Dwight Duncan runs). The Liberals also have a good chance at picking up two semi-rural seats in Eastern Ontario - Bay of Quinte and Northumberland - Pine Ridge. Especially, since the Conservative incumbent in Prince Edward Hastings is retiring.

    The Liberals also have a good shot at winning seats like Brant, Kitchener Conestoga and one of the Barrie seats (maybe both if Patrick Brown resigns to run for OPC leader). Bruce Hyer running for the Greens in Thunder Superior North may split the riding for the Liberals.

    If Lisa Raitt runs in Milton that might be tough for the Liberals. Halimand-Norfolk also seems safe for the Tories. John Baird never wins by a large margin in Ottawa West Napean, but I won't be surprised if he narrowly wins that again.

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    Replies
    1. Couple of things.

      First off, the Liberals are putting in a serious effort Outremont, it was one of their earliest nominations (with Rachel Bendayan, who was the candidate basically in January 2014), and its a flippable riding. Just because Mulcair is popular in Quebec, doesn't mean he's popular in Outremont - that is a riding with a Liberal pedigree, and we intend to take it back.

      Next, Nash is so popular she lost her riding twice. Remember that PHP is half NDP-friendly and half Liberal-friendly, and is perpetually marginal. She could easily lose, and Lib candidates are lining up to do so. Cash is easily as vulnerable as his provincial counterpart was. I don't know enough about Sitsabaiesan, but I do know her majority was cut in half during the redistribution.

      Finally, Baird isn't running in OW-N - he's running in the new Nepean riding.

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    2. The safety of Nash's seat depends a lot on whether Gerard Kennedy runs. Cash and Sitsabaiesan are certainly vulnerable while Baird is somewhat safe due to the fact that he is running in Nepean. We will probably also take Hamilton East Stoney Creek from the NDP because the Hamilton Mayor is running there.Seats the provincial Liberals won such as Burlington or Cambridge are also possible pickups.

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    3. If the Liberals come over a 32 point NDP lead and knock out their leader in Outremont - that would be a tremendous achievement for them. I just don't see that happening, unless the NDP implode in Quebec.

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    4. To point out, the NDP overcame a nearly 20-point deficit to win in Outremont against the Liberals. Never say never, nor be so skeptical, especially in Quebec.

      That being said, I didn't say they WILL win, I just said they're working very hard to put in a good showing. That work will pay off if the momentum is right.

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    5. The NDP garnered 43% of the popular vote in Quebec in 2011 and today are polling around 28%, on a straight swing vote of provincial voting intentions the Liberals would pick up Outremont. However, many factors are in play including a diminishing Bloc vote (probably to the benefit of the NDP and Tories) and of course Mulcair's status as leader.

      I think Mulcair will hold the seat although he is vulnerable especially because of the large Jewish population in the riding and the NDP position on Israel/ Palestine and the current Gaza conflict.

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    6. The collapse of the BQ doesn't help the CPC.
      http://abacusdata.ca/2014/08/21/federal-politics-bq/
      Only 15% of BQ supporters would consider the CPC.

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    8. K Menon,

      That may or may not be so remember the MoE. If 15% of 2011 BQ voters voted Tory that would increase the Conservative Party vote in Quebec by 3.5%- if such a swing was regionally located has the potential to influence 5-10 seats. However, as Abacus points out the vast majority of 2011 BQ voters intend to vote BQ-a 66% retention rate- in the next election.

      I would treat this report from Abacus with a grain of salt it appears to be a compilation of various surveys which probably explains why their numbers total 126.

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  3. I will be adjusting the numbers as the next election draws near. Outremont already has a huge adjustment - in the last election it was 21.9K-NDP to 9.2K-Lib, but I pretend as though it were 36.3K-NDP to 9.1K-Lib. It's the single largest adjustment in my ElectoMatic, larger even than the adjustment needed to make up for the total lack of a Conservative candidate in Portneuf.

    I will, of course, continue to follow events, and make further adjustments if needed.

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