Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Elections to come

The summer is drawing to it's symbolic close with Labour day coming within two weeks.

With that, I thought it was time to take a look at some coming elections and my predictions for them.


MUNICIPAL

The Toronto elections occur on October 27th 2014.
I uurge any residents of ward 24 to take a look at Dan Fox's campaign Dan is a Liberal who is running to replace Ford enabler David Shiner.

In my predictions for the last election I said a Ford victory in the Mayor's office was meaningless, as City Council would never take him seriously. I was wrong.

If you want to ensure competent governance, you need to elect a competent council.

Regardless, it is indeed the Mayor's race that gets the attention. From what I can gather though info I can find and poll averaging, the current race is as so.

37% - John Tory - Backing from many Liberals (for some reason I don't understand)
29% - Olivia Chow - The official unofficial NDP candidate
27% - Rob Ford - The begrudgingly default Conservative candidate

Tory has the clear lead right now, which may ironically be good news for some Liberals. The overwhelming majority of Liberals I have networked with here in the city are backing him. I personally despise him, but I report on numbers as they truly are, and not as I'd wish them to be (if the latter, this would be a 2-person race between Stintz and Soknacki)


SUB-NATIONAL

New Brunswick's election officially kicks off shortly. The Liberals have had a pretty strong polling lead for quite some time and should be able to leverage that into a victory. Unlike in places like Newfoundland, however, this is not a sure thing. Another party could still pull out a surprise victory.

Currently, I have the poll pegged at the following

51% - LIB
24% - PC
21% - NDP

This could result in an NDP caucus of half a dozen members, and a PC caucus not much larger.

I will be posting more on NB as the election draws closer. E-day is September 22nd.


Scotland will be having an independence referendum on the 18th of september.
Polls agree the NO side looks set to win.
From what I can gather, the polls are likely indicating the following outcome:

57% - NO
43% - YES

This would make it similar to Quebec's 1980 referendum in some ways.
I will also have more to say about this in the coming month as the polls (hopefully) solidify and converge



NATIONAL

New Zealand goes to the polls on September 20th. A prediction is difficult but as far as I can figure, these numbers for total seats seem most likely

62 - National (Incumbent) 
30 - Labour
16 - Green
6 - New Zealand First
7 - Various Maori Parties (likely mostly "Internet Mana")

I will also be posting a better analysis of this later on, including each party, what they stand for, and how NZ politics works.


Lastly, I have my eye on Sweden.
There are a number of major parties in Sweden. The Social Democrats usually take top spot in polling. The Moderates however won the last election.

Moderate allies include the Liberals and Centre party as well as the Christian Democrats.
Social Democrat allies have traditionally been the Left party and the Greens.

The Swedish Democrats, seen by many as "a racist party" is not in any alliance.

The Feminist Party, not currently in Parliament, would likely sit with the left-wing alliance if elected.

Currently, the following seems likely

175 - Left (Majority)
140 - Right (Incumbent)
34 - Democrats

As always, I'll keep you up to date on developments as they occur.

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