Monday, June 9, 2014
Ipsos has been telling us all along the Tories are headed for a win.
Every other firm, however, has either knowingly or unknowingly indicated the Liberals will win.
A lot of this rides on my gut backed up by all sorts of numbers. In short I expect the following is happening.
1 - NDP supporters are not happy with the NDP calling the election.
2 - NDP supporters are not happy with Horwath's move to the right. They are actually starting to believe that she may be a right-wing populist of some sort.
3 - NDP supporters, or at least a good number of them, still fear Hudak. They will switch to the Liberals to stop the PC Party from winning.
4 - Any voter convinced by the "Liberals are Corrupt" argument have already decided to vote against Wynne. Any further argument on this front is fruitless.
5 - Hudak has done what he needs to, but people actually like Wynne.
6 - Wynne does equal change to many voters.
7 - The Liberals will thus outperform the polls.
8 - Considering a tie vote means a strong Liberal minority, a small victory in votes means a majority.
And how do I know this?
1 - Polls asking people who they voted for last time are consistently under-representing the NDP.
2 - The only consistent polls showing the PC Party ahead are online polls.
2a - These polls must be corrected to match census data or are otherwise pretty much useless.
2b - I believe that such correction is creating a nonsensical result due to self sampling that is the core of online polling.
2c - Ipsos has no clue what the heck it is doing.
3 - The PC Party has been fairly steady in the polls, while the Liberals and NDP have been swinging back and forth between one another.
3a - This tells me there are a lot of Lib-NDP undecided voters.
4 - I firmly believe voters do not want another minority.
4a - They do not trust Horwath to keep it alive without handing the keys to Hudak.
4b - They do not trust her because she called an election on (what they see as) a good budget.
5 - The media continues to show this is a horse race, fueled by Ipsos.
5a - This will drive the needed NDP voters to the Liberals.
6 - This election is extraordinarily boring.
6a - Despite all the big promises, like huge tax cuts or retirement plans, there is nothing to grab the imagination of the voter.
All of this makes it extraordinarily hard for me to present a concise argument as I usually do. This is a very complex election for very complex reasons, and I do so loath to drone on. I hope these point-form explanations are acceptable to the majority of readers.