Monday, June 9, 2014

Penultimate Prediction

Ipsos has been telling us all along the Tories are headed for a win.

Every other firm, however, has either knowingly or unknowingly indicated the Liberals will win.

A lot of this rides on my gut backed up by all sorts of numbers. In short I expect the following is happening.

1 - NDP supporters are not happy with the NDP calling the election.
2 - NDP supporters are not happy with Horwath's move to the right. They are actually starting to believe that she may be a right-wing populist of some sort.
3 - NDP supporters, or at least a good number of them, still fear Hudak. They will switch to the Liberals to stop the PC Party from winning.
4 - Any voter convinced by the "Liberals are Corrupt" argument have already decided to vote against Wynne. Any further argument on this front is fruitless.
5 - Hudak has done what he needs to, but people actually like Wynne.
6 - Wynne does equal change to many voters.
7 - The Liberals will thus outperform the polls.
8 - Considering a tie vote means a strong Liberal minority, a small victory in votes means a majority.

And how do I know this?

1 - Polls asking people who they voted for last time are consistently under-representing the NDP.
2 - The only consistent polls showing the PC Party ahead are online polls.
2a - These polls must be corrected to match census data or are otherwise pretty much useless.
2b - I believe that such correction is creating a nonsensical result due to self sampling that is the core of online polling.
2c - Ipsos has no clue what the heck it is doing.
3 - The PC Party has been fairly steady in the polls, while the Liberals and NDP have been swinging back and forth between one another.
3a - This tells me there are a lot of Lib-NDP undecided voters.
4 - I firmly believe voters do not want another minority.
4a - They do not trust Horwath to keep it alive without handing the keys to Hudak.
4b - They do not trust her because she called an election on (what they see as) a good budget.
5 - The media continues to show this is a horse race, fueled by Ipsos.
5a - This will drive the needed NDP voters to the Liberals.
6 - This election is extraordinarily boring.
6a - Despite all the big promises, like huge tax cuts or retirement plans, there is nothing to grab the imagination of the voter.

All of this makes it extraordinarily hard for me to present a concise argument as I usually do. This is a very complex election for very complex reasons, and I do so loath to drone on. I hope these point-form explanations are acceptable to the majority of readers.


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  2. While a few people may be shocked, I felt there was no surprise that the Liberals will be re-elected. Wynne for the most part was able to reverse or move past prior Liberal mistakes and re-energize the party. I agree with most if not all your points on why the Liberals will win.

    One thing I would like to add is that the Ontario Liberals are very well organized. Perhaps one of the best organized political parties in the country, next to the federal Conservatives and BC Liberals. They have an excellent GOTV machine. They know how to get dollars from both unions and big business. They have strong local riding associations in places where they haven't won in decades (i.e. Burlington, Cambridge, Trinity Spadina, Beaches East York). In an election, where they were supposed to lose, they are fielding some quality local candidates.

    The biggest surprise for me is Andrea Horwath. After four impressive by-election wins and high poll numbers, I expected more from her. Horwath triggered an election that she and her party was not prepared for. By focusing on the Southwest she alienated the party's Toronto base. Now she is poised to lose seats in Toronto, without making significant gains elsewhere.

    A couple of things I'd disagree on your map. I have a feeling that the NDP will hold Essex, London West and Niagara Falls. I think in these ridings we may see a scenario where the anti-PC vote will rally around the incumbent NDP. Forum does have the NDP winning the latter two ridings by a few points. I also see the NDP holding Bramalea Gore Malton. Jagmeet Singh is a popular incumbent and Horwath-style populism can work here.

    I see the Liberals taking Halton and Cambridge from the PCs. If Burlington goes red, I see Halton turning red. Both ridings have quality candidates and in regards to Halton the demographics of this riding has been changing rapidly. Wynne's support of local industry in Cambridge might be enough to pull that riding to the Liberal column. Furthermore, I see the Liberals taking Kitchener Waterloo from the NDP. Wynne has invested quite a bit of time and resources in this riding. They are investing in the Go Train, plus the technology sector which should play well in this riding.

    I guess my prediction would result in

    OLP - 59 (+10)
    PC - 32 (-5)
    NDP - 16 (-5)

  3. I've been predicting all along that Sudbury will go NDP, and I'm continuing to maintain that prediction. This weekend's Toronto Star poll put the NDP up by about 8 points, and I think should be enough, even with the Liberals likely closing the gap. Lots of negative campaign ads have hit the airwaves, Facebook, etc., from the Liberals, personally attacking popular local municipal councillor and NDP candidate Joe Cimino (Rob Ford's look-alike). The "feel" here, however, is the NDP will take it.

    1. I could be wrong about that riding. I just don't know enough about it.

    2. I've looked deeper into the riding, the provincewide math is very strong here. Unless the NDP has a very strong candidate (no, VERY strong) they won't be able to win here.

    3. 308 predicts the Liberals will win Sudbury but, by a small margin; 40.1% OLP, 39.2 ONDP, 14.5 PC. The listed probability is 50% OLP win. So take your pick.

  4. I agree with much of what TheNewTeddy wrote but; I do not think the Liberals will outperform the polls. In the 2011 election the Tories out performed the polls by roughly 3%. I think a similar outcome is likely this time due to a number of factors including low turnout. If turnout is low the Liberals will likely under perform the polls.

    Point 8 may or may not be correct; a small lead in the popular vote over the Tories will equal a majority. This is certainly possible but, much will depend on how the vote breaks down regionally and how the NDP result. A 3or4% difference could equal a majority but I doubt a 1-2% lead would be enough to win a majority. Alternately the Liberals could lose the popular vote but win a majority if the NDP vote collapses in the GTA and Toronto proper.