Sunday, June 29, 2014

New Brunswick election, coming this fall.

I decided to prepare some maps for the impending New Brunswick election.

The summer is usually quiet-time politically; so to fill the void, I've decided to take a look at various provinces.

First up is New Brunswick which has an election this fall.

My prediction map is ready to go, and like Newfoundland, I don't see any way to stop the Liberal steamroller.

I fully expect the Liberals to easily take 27 of the 49 seats, and win a majority. There is also the possibility they could take 39 seats, if not more. The Tories are in trouble; in recent elections their vote spread has been moving away from that during the Hatfield-Lord era, and back towards a more traditional spread. This means they will do very well in Anglo-NB but poorly in Franco-NB. To help illustrate this, I also made a language map.

I want to draw attention to the different Acadian communities in North Central and in South East NB. Most Acadians in the South East are bi-lingual. This does not apply to all of them, but in general, this is a good rule of thumb. The opposite however is true for Acadians in the North; especially those in the darker blue areas.

Despite this, it is the South Eastern group of Acadians who have been the most loyal to the Liberal party over the decades. Federally, for example, they have only once elected a non-Liberal MP, and that is in the history of Canada since 1867. Riding 15 in particular, that of the recent interim Liberal leader, appears to have never voted anything else. I've attempted to find evidence that this area has -ever- voted anything except Liberal and failed to do so. The Current Liberal Leader is also from the South East; he will win in riding #14.

It is the NDP though that have collected the most interesting assortment of candidates. I've boosted their chances where they've been able to grab a former MLA from another party, and this is in more than one instance. A former PC MLA is running for them in #27, one that was famous enough to get in the news frequently enough while I lived in the province. Two former Liberals are also running, one in #33, and another in #40, both ridings have strong NDP showings without them, and they could easily take the ridings for the party. The NDP also has a strong candidate in #32, one of their better showings. It seems like the party may be willing to put the resources it needs in focused ridings in order to win seats.

I will, of course, keep you all updated on how this all plays out.


  1. Without a big name in Tracadie-Sheila, I don't see the NDP winning there - it will likely revert back to a PC/Liberal fight. Duguay was the only draw there for the party.

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