Monday, June 9, 2014

Don't Call It a Comeback... Yet.

If you've been following the Ontario election - and lets be honest, why would you? - it seems like the pollsters, each in their own way, are starting to converge. And the thing they're all saying is that Kathleen Wynne's Liberals are well set to probably win the election, or at the very least tie it up.

Oh, how things change. It will be hard for Wynne to get a majority mandate, but over this campaign and the year and a half proceeding it, Wynne has led her party admirably and managed to not only surpass the NDP who were threatening to depose the Liberals as the centre-left option in the province, but also gained ground on the Hudak PCs who were threatening to destroy the province (or something).

Just take a look at where we were two years ago, facing utter annihilation. Now our party is leading in most polls, and at the very least has ensured that Hudak won't be getting a majority in this election. Much of it is thanks to Hudak and Horwath's own incompetence, a fact that we should recognize - but Wynne and the OLP team deserves credit for knowing when to take advantage of their opponent's foibles, and positioned themselves as a viable alternative between two bad choices. Just like someone else who was relatively successful and whose name has been thrown around lately.

We won't know the results until the night of the 12th, obviously, but I've got a good feeling folks. I think you may just see a returned Liberal government, and I don't think its crazy to say that a majority is in the cards, albeit a very thin one.

Now, I must be off to win a bet about who can get more Liberal voters in their home poll. To the streets!


  1. Well the polls are converging indicating the OLP and PCs are tied for support. I don't think that a good sign for Wynne as polls in the past, notably the 2011 election, under-estimated Tory support by roughly 3%. The other problem for the Liberals is a solid majority of Ontarians (67%) want a new government at Queen's Park. The Tories or Grits are capable of winning a majority on Thursday and just like the 2006 federal election there is a real danger people will hold their noses and vote Conservative in order to punish what has been demonstrated as one of the most corrupt and self-serving governments in recent history.

  2. Some differences in this situation from 2006 bede. The Liberals ran a terrible campaign during that election while the Conservative ran a good one and Mr. Harper managed to not look scary. Contrast that with the Ontario election where the Liberals have run a relatively error free campaign while Jim Hudak has lead with his chin twice.

    The NDP of Jack Layton did very well in 2006, and it was apparent from the beginning that they would. The same cannot be said of the Ontario NDP in this election.

    Those differences could be key in 2014. We will see.