I decided rather than split this into two posts, and make maps for each, I'll do the unusual, and not do a map! Rather I present to you some numbers showing the differences. I figured the less words the more clear what is going on will be.
Online polls have lower undecided numbers. 11% directly compared to 18% in polls done by Innovative.
Ipsos indicates 53% of PC voters are certain they'll vote PC at the end of the day, compared with 37% of Liberal voters.
All polls that show swing voters indicate there are a large number of Liberal-NDP swing voters.
Abacus tells us 12% of men are undecided VS 16% of women.
In most recent BC and Alberta elections...
Ekos told us that voters for the winning BC Liberals were by far less "enthusiastic" than for the NDP.
Ipsos told us that BC Liberal voters were less "firm" in their choice.
Leger told us that most undecided voters were leaning towards the PC Party in Alberta.
And in the most recent NS and Quebec elections...
Leger told us that the PQ had the most solid vote.
CAQ and QS voters were least likely to stick with their party according to Ipsos.
Abacus told us NS NDP voters were more committed to their party.
But the one thing all the polls had in common. The leader. Where the Leader outperformed the party, the party outperformed the polls.
Hudak, in every poll that polls leadership, loses to Wynne.
It is thus Teddy's opinion that the following is happening in Ontario.
1 - What happened in BC and Alberta is happening, again, here, and now.
2 - Forum and Ekos have done something - I don't know what - that corrects for this problem.
3 - Ipsos and possibly Abacus however, have not done whatever that thing is.
4 - The Liberals are sitting on the edge of a Majority.