Sunday, May 25, 2014

Sunday Update - Polls everywhere

I decided rather than split this into two posts, and make maps for each, I'll do the unusual, and not do a map! Rather I present to you some numbers showing the differences. I figured the less words the more clear what is going on will be.

Online polls have lower undecided numbers. 11% directly compared to 18% in polls done by Innovative.

Ipsos indicates 53% of PC voters are certain they'll vote PC at the end of the day, compared with 37% of Liberal voters.

All polls that show swing voters indicate there are a large number of Liberal-NDP swing voters.

Abacus tells us 12% of men are undecided VS 16% of women.

In most recent BC and Alberta elections...

Ekos told us that voters for the winning BC Liberals were by far less "enthusiastic" than for the NDP.

Ipsos told us that BC Liberal voters were less "firm" in their choice.

Leger told us that most undecided voters were leaning towards the PC Party in Alberta.

And in the most recent NS and Quebec elections...

Leger told us that the PQ had the most solid vote.

CAQ and QS voters were least likely to stick with their party according to Ipsos.

Abacus told us NS NDP voters were more committed to their party.

But the one thing all the polls had in common. The leader. Where the Leader outperformed the party, the party outperformed the polls.

Hudak, in every poll that polls leadership, loses to Wynne.

It is thus Teddy's opinion that the following is happening in Ontario.

1 - What happened in BC and Alberta is happening, again, here, and now.
2 - Forum and Ekos have done something - I don't know what - that corrects for this problem.
3 - Ipsos and possibly Abacus however, have not done whatever that thing is.
4 - The Liberals are sitting on the edge of a Majority.


  1. We've only seen one IVR poll put the Tories ahead, and that poll was taken on May 3rd. Only one Online poll has shown the Liberals ahead, and that was taken May 6th. The same day a Telephone poll showed the same, contradicting a Telephone poll from the previous day.

    Since May 7th, every Online poll has told us the Tories are ahead, while every IVR poll has told us the Liberals are ahead.

  2. Since May 7th. Averages. IVR voters.
    38% Liberal // 32% PC // 21% NDP // 6% Grn

    Since May 7th. Averages. Online voters. Likely model.
    41% PC // 31% Liberal // 25% NDP // 4% Grn

  3. I hope that you're right. Not because I want to see the Liberals rewarded with another term as government, but because Hudak truly frightens me.

  4. The Ipsos "likely voter" turnout model is somewhat wonky. It severely underestimates the non-PC vote.

    One interesting thing I noticed is that they claim the combined Green/"Other" vote will be 2% on May 9th and 3% on May 21st. Seems rather low, as "Others" without the Greens usually get a little more than 1% of the popular vote.

    Will Ipsos be surprised when the Liberals come close to or win a majority on June 12th?