Saturday, May 10, 2014

South Africa, India, Quebec, and more.

South Africa's elections are over. I've created a single catch-all table to show the full results, and compare to historic results as well.

I wanted to present a map that was unique. It will be easy to find province level, municipal level, and even ward level maps, but I've never seen a district level map; so, I made one.

As you can see, it's not terribly exciting, but it is unique from what I can tell.

Not much in additional analysis and commentary, as most of what's been said still stands. The ANC appears to have had their worst election, and the main opposition party, their best.

Quebec has an interesting new poll out:

The PQ is now at BQ levels, polling 19% provincewide, between the CAQ at 27% and the QS at 11%. The PLQ leads at 40%.

Duceppe is the clear front runner, leading the PQ voters according to the poll, but also the favourite of both the CAQ and QS, and, the top choice, among any of the choices, among Liberals as well.

PKP has a very strong showing, but may not be able to overcome an "Anybody But PKP" movement.

Drainville and Lisee are doing well, as expected.

Sylvain Gaudreault, from the Saguenay, is also polling well, as is Veronique Hivon, especially among more left-wing members; she may become the candidate of the Left.

With Duceppe leading the PQ, the party polls at 29%, ahead of the CAQ; all other leaders trail the CAQ except for PKP, who manages a tie.

If the PQ had taken 19% in the election, the CAQ 27%, and QS 11%, we would have had an interesting result.

It might not seem like much of a change from the real election, but let me show you what would have happened:

So you could say this poll is "bad news" for the PQ.

India counts it's ballots on May 16th, and finishes voting, which has already been occurring for over a month, in a few days.

The BJP lead right-leaning NDA is expected to win a majority of seats.

I will cover this in greater detail on the 16th.

Tomorrow is the date for the referendum in one of the Ukrainian provinces partly held by separatists. Given the fact that they are being pushed back by the army, I doubt, regardless of what the numbers say, there will be a true "yes" vote that will be accepted by Russia.

Iraq recently voted, and like South Africa, it is new to free elections, and has many political parties.

The governing State of Law coalition took 67 seats, while an Islamist (Shia) coalition appears to have managed a second place finish with 48. The third party appears to be another Islamic (Sunni) coalition, on 33, while the Sadr movement sits on 32. The INA, lead by Iyad Allawi appears to bave dropped to 25. Two Kurdish parties are next at 20 and 14, while the secular CDA appears to have taken 10. An additional 10 seats have gone to Shia Islamists, Sunni Islamists, another 7, to more Shia Islamists, and 52 to assorted others.

This puts the Shia Islamists at a total of 174 seats, the Sunni Islamists at 43, the Secular parties at 35, and the Kurdish parties at 34. With 174 seats, it's likely the current State of Law coalition, with Shia Islamist backing, could form a majority government in Iraq's 328 seat Parliament.

1 comment:

  1. Ignore Soulanges; it was a misclick, it should be Liberal Red.