Friday, May 2, 2014

Ontario Prediction - opening day


A personal prediction. I'd like some feedback on the map as well, do you like this style; any suggestions for changes, etc?

Note that within the next few days I'll be creating and releasing an Ontario ElectoMatic so that everyone can have the fun of making predictions from home!

Not much additional commentary; that will come over the weekend.

5 comments:

  1. Map style is great. I find it more fun to analyze the prediction!

    Do you really think Mike Schreiner can win Guelph? I'd like him too, he seems like a great guy to have at Queen's Park, but I think Liz Sandals will hold it again for the Liberals (pending any province-wide Liberal meltdown).

    It seems like you have the Liberals taking back Windsor Tecumseh and holding Windsor West. I'm guessing this is an error? NDP beat Liberals 61% to 12% in Windsor Tecumseh by election last summer, no way it is going back to the Liberals. NDP traditionally strong in this region, so they can take Windsor West too.

    Other predictions which I disagree.

    I predict the Liberals will hold Oak Ridges Markham, PC hasn't improved their fortunes enough here yet.

    Liberals will hold Ottawa Centre, solely due to popular MPP Yasir Naqvi.

    NDP will hold to their by-election gains London West and Niagara Falls. They should be well organized here.

    Liberals will not win back Barrie, Perth-Wellington and Prince Edward Hasting. The popular incumbents of those ridings have retired, PC incumbents should hold.

    It's a bold prediction, but I agree that the Liberals will win Halton. Demographics are changing rapidly in this riding making it more in tune with the Peel or York ridings the Liberals currently hold. I believe if Halton goes Liberal, Burlington will go Liberal too. They have a strong candidate there, and it is a Liberal target riding.

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    1. You are right. I've not taken into account by-elections at all, or incumbent advantage.

      The only thing I disagree with you on is Guelph. The Greens are polling well, pretty constantly, in South-West Ontario. Many commentators suspect that this will be in Grey county, or in Dufferin county; but I suspect this is actually in Guelph.

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    2. The Greens winning Guelph would require way too much to go right for them. Schreiner is no May, or even a Harris or Carr. The NDP are more likely to upset the Liberals in Guelph than the Greens, and they're the long shot of the big three.

      In other words, nope.

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  2. There are a few things that I pick out that is weird. As one poster stated earlier, there is no way the NDP will lose Windsor Tecumseh, and if I was a betting person, I would also bet that the NDP would also take Windsor West as well. You have the Liberals winning Perth Wellington and Prince Edward Hastings, I only have two things to say about that: Wind Turbines and No Chance in Hell. Liberals winning any seats in Rural Ontario, outside of what they won in 2011 is practically a zero chance. Liberals are DOA in Rural Ontario. As for the Greens winning Guelph, well, this is like counting your chickens before they hatch. If the Greens were to have a chance, I would like to see some reputable polling done first in the riding.

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  3. I agree that Guelph will be a tight race, but I think Mike Schreiner will edge out the liberal candidate. They have been campaigning for months prior to the election being called and the party is putting all their eggs in the Guelph basket. I think these moves will amount to a Green party win.

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