Sunday, May 4, 2014

Ontario - Possibilities

Note the date, yesterday, on these maps. Any "brand new polls" are thus not considered within these. Regardless, here we go.

So this is my base prediction, adjusted based on the comments received from the last one.

The Greens could "win" the election with less seats than anyone else; 8. By getting 8 seats they get party status. These are the 8 most likely seats the Greens could (but won't) win this election.

While unlikely at this point, the NDP could still manage to somehow win; if so, this is what an NDP majority would look like.

There is some potential for this to happen, so, this is what a Conservative majority would look like.

This is what a Liberal majority would look like.

And finally, someone elses prediction, in this case, that of the Election Prediction Project

1 comment:

  1. It seems like no party will be getting a majority on June 12th, unless there is a major change in dynamics.

    Liberals - They have a huge task of having to hold all their incumbent seats, while gaining 5 or 6 more. The Liberals are bound to lose ridings such as Windsor West and Sudbury. Where will the Liberals gain? Rural Ontario hasn't changed their mind about the Liberals, despite Wynne's pandering to them. Not enough vulnerable PC/NDP MPPs in the GTA either.

    PC - They need to make a breakthrough in suburban Toronto, Brampton, Mississauga, Ottawa, Kitchener, London etc. Hudak is too right-wing to take enough of these urban/suburban seats to win a majority. Seems like they also have to rely on the NDP to peel off left-wing Liberal votes.

    NDP - They lack the ground game to win a minority, let alone majority. Despite polling strong in the last two years, they are behind in candidate nominations compared to the other two parties. They rely too much on an OLP collapse which is defiantly not happening. Wynne is not Ignatieff.

    Side note: Does Andrea Horwath even want to be premier? Seems she is content in saying random populist things and winning the occasional by-election.