Ontario will be going to an election. My original guess of June 5th is impossible due to a religious holiday. If the election is called today; not tomorrow but today, we could go May 29th. If not, the most likely day is June 12th.
I will write more about this, as I'm sure Kyle will, but in short this election will be between three parties. Not the three that you likely think. Those are labels, colours, a brand. The three parties will be...
The Party I Fear
The Party that Disgusts me
and The Party I think is Incompetent
You may recognize these parties. They ran in BC, Alberta, and Quebec in their most recent provincial elections. Nova Scotia had a different set of parties, running "The Party I Do Not Fear" which won a majority.
In Quebec, BC, and Alberta, "The Party I Fear" was projected to win early on. In the latter two, polls showed the party winning right up to election day. In Quebec, polls accurately showed that party dropping like a stone.
"The Party I think is Incompetent" has had mixed success. Underperforming in BC, hitting the mark in Alberta, and surpassing expectations in Quebec.
In the end, the race, at least for now, is between "The Party I Fear" and "The Party that Disgusts me". History has told us that Fear trumps Disgust, meaning the latter should win.
Weather they do are not, as always, is for time to tell.