Monday, April 7, 2014

World elections, update

As we focus on Quebec, elsewhere in the world, elections continue as normal.

In Australia, a re-run of the Western Australia senate race was held, due to lost ballots seeing the general election results being overturned.

The Liberals have won two seats, while Labor has won a single seat, as have the Greens. There is a 6th seat that is up for grabs between Labor and the Liberals. Should the Liberals win it, it will mean very little has changed since the general election.

What has changed is a pickup for the Palmer United Party from one of the Microparties. PUP is quickly becoming a right-wing alternative in the country. I've prepared a map showing where the PUP might win house seats, Federally, based on these voting levels. All these seats in in Queensland.

Hungary also held an election. Votes are still being counted it seems but the results are pretty clear.

The governing party, a conservative party, has been re-elected to a huge majority. They will now old 133 of the 199 seats. Unity, an attempt to unify all the non-crazy opposition parties, has only managed 38. Jobbik, the far right nationalist party, has managed 23 seats. The LMP, a Green party that chose to opt out of Unity has managed 5 seats.

India starts its elections, which will take some 40 days to complete. The country is so large, rather than having everyone vote at once, they do it in 8 phases. 

The two main parties as the Congress, a small l liberal party with some left-wing tendencies, and the BJP, a nationalist small c conservative party that relies on religious (hindu) voters. There is also a "third force" lead by local Communists.

Due to the size of the country, almost a billion eligible voters, the parties rely on smaller allied parties to win. The Congress thus has it's own alliance, as does the BJP, and the Communists. To simplify, however, I'll simply refer to the entire alliance by it's lead party.

Most polls and projections expect similar results.
The BJP is expected to win with around 240 seats. The Congress is expected to take around 110. The Communists, around 50. This would leave 143 seats for the "other" parties; mostly local organizations. 

This would allow the BJP and it's allies to cobble together a majority government, lead by Narendra Modi, who is a very popular candidate that has helped propel his party to new heights. As usual with popular politicians, he is very controversial for some of his stances and record. His wikipage can be found here.

1 comment:

  1. Oops. I intended to set this to autopublish at 2pm, but I picked 2am.