This is less of a post full of maps and analysis and more of a question I am posing. Will Canada one day vote OUI? That is, will "English Canada" - IE the 9 non-Quebec provinces, one day ask, or force, Quebec to leave Canada?
This ties in to my "pivot" post, though originally I had not had this in mind. With the ruling on the Senate, the feeling from more than a few of my friends - from all across the political spectrum - was that we'd never get the provinces to agree to any change to the Senate.
Not because PEI would stop them, or Alberta would; but because Quebec would. The general feeling was that without Quebec we just might be able to open up the constitution without causing all hell to break loose. While the desire and drive to reform the Senate is not nearly strong enough to break up the country - or to even perturb a prime minister (he was only disappointed) - it might just be a symbol for what is to come.
Could we see, 50 years from the 1980 Referendum, in 2030, a Referendum where the rest of Canada votes on if Quebec should leave?
Technology has caused many changes and countries all around the world have changed their constitutions to match the new modern society. The USA is one exception, but should Canada be one as well? Currently there are only 3 provinces that are growing; making money; creating good quality long-term jobs; and have great future prospects. BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. These 3 provinces have been on the up for quite some time. Western Canada thus is growing as it has been and their appetite for Constitutional change has always been great. What makes Alberta's demands different is that Ontario and the Atlantic are generally on board with the various things Alberta has to say, like a EEE Senate or more fiscal power to the provinces. The problem is we can never re-open the constitution to pass a 9 province agreement after what happened to Quebec, not only on the night of long knives, and Meech, but Charlottetown as well. We could well get a near unanimous agreement only to find Quebec will block it, or worse, that Premiers and the Prime Minister are too afraid to even try because of Quebec.
The pro-Reform and pro-Abolition sides in the Senate debate both reacted to the court decision the same way. "Oh well, whatever, lets move on to other things." Sure they think it's important, but it's not one of those crucial we-need-to-fix-this-now things; despite the fact that it was for some of them only a decade or three ago. Harper may not be doing what everyone likes, but he is proving that you can make the needed adjustments to the government, within the constitution, to satisfy many of the provinces. It was only a decade ago that Chretien and Martin were facing off against hostile governments in Alberta, Quebec, and Newfoundland, whereas today Harper finds allies in Alberta and Quebec, and Newfoundland seems to have forgotten they hate the man. Even Ontario went from making noise to being a silent partner. Just as both sides have done with regard to the Senate, eventually Quebecois and Anglo Canadians will throw up their hands and agree that getting rid of the status quo is just not worth the effort required to change it.
Also, I'm making a little announcement. From time to time I'll be having a discussion on Twitter and need more room to really flesh out the facts on an issue. My "Taxes" post was one of these. However; I'm finding this happening more and more frequently, and, finding that many of them are not always directly related into politics, or, are backing wild and crazy ideas. As such, I am announcing that for those posts, I am moving them to an old blog I have, Numbers by Teddy.
I'll still be here, of course, making posts about the issues of the day, but my posts that rely heavily on calculation and numbers, like the Rabble Poll, will now be located on that other blog.