Monday, April 7, 2014

What to expect tonight in Quebec

I want to begin by recapping my final prediction for the race.

72 - 39.5% - PLQ
35 - 26.5% - PQ
14 - 23.0% - CAQ
4 - 9.0% - QS

There are a few scenarios we can expect.

Scenario 1: Wildrose
The polls are way off and the PQ is doing far better than anyone thinks. In this scenario, the result will look very much like it did last time, with the only changes being some CAQ ridings going PLQ.

Scenario 2: ADQ
The rise of the ADQ in 2007 was only half expected. Polls had them at around 10-20 seats. They ended up with almost 40. This is similar to the PQ Nightmare scenario I posted on earlier.

Scenario 3: CoR
In 1991 the Confederation of Regions did far better than expected in the New Brunswick election than people had thought a party so far to the right could do. In this scenario, it's the QS that picks up the bulk of last-minute jumpers from the PQ ship, and is thus able to win 7 or more seats.

Scenario 4: Teddy
In short, this is what I expect to happen. It contrasts from...

Scenario 5: Projections
The three I follow, 2 close 2 call, 308 dot com, and the Canadian Election Atlas all have similar final numbers; with the latter website updating shortly. Each has the PQ at 40 or more. The latter thinks the PQ will win these seats; compared to my prediction; from the PLQ, while the former two at the expense of the CAQ. Also a key difference is they all expect Marois to win her seat, while I expect her to lose. I will consider it a personal victory if the PQ takes 37 or less seats, and if Charlevoix is not one of them.

What is at stake is the future of the PQ. If the party can manage 40 seats, or even manage 35, they can hold on and remain a real threat. If, however, the PQ manages to finish in 3rd place, there is a real chance that if the cards are played right - and there is no guarantee they will be - that the PQ will never again be a real threat to winning a Quebec election.

I've added a colourblind friendly version of the final prediction map.

1 comment:

  1. I have doubts that QS will win Laurier-Dorion, that requires not just all of the PQ vote but a substantial portion of the PLQ and CAQ votes, moreso the former, and for the riding to go against almost every trend ever.